Day baseball once again dominates this Wednesday. We avoided that slate as much as we could, but the total in the Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants game was just too juicy not to write up. Perhaps the weather will curse me, however. The night slate includes medium-low-heat games like Red Sox vs. Rangers, Rockies vs. Tigers, Twins vs. Orioles, and Royals vs. White Sox. That said, below are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants over 7.0 runs (-110)
We slammed the o7.5 on Monday when lefty Landon Roupp took the mound for the Giants at Wrigley, and the Cubs cleared the number themselves. The Giants almost doubled that number in last night’s game.
Here’s what I noted about evaluating the Cubs’ lineup splits:
The Cubs’ lineup has been so good this year that it’s tough to evaluate betting angles based on lefty/righty splits. Your first thought goes to the heavy contributions from left-handed hitters in the Chicago order: Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, to name the hottest trio of them. Really, the only batter in the entire lineup whose predictably floundered against lefties is Busch, to the tune of a .528 OPS in the 2025 campaign. I was a little surprised when I saw the Cubs so heavily-favored (even at home) against Giants’ starter, southpaw Landen Roupp. But it makes sense now. Seiya Suzuki (1.131 lefty OPS), Dansby Swanson (1.087), Tucker (.940), Ian Happ (.931), Nico Hoerner (.890), and PCA (.793) all handle lefties with bat-to-ball violence.
Enter today’s day-game bump-dweller, Robbie Ray. He ranks in the bottom-fifth percentile of qualifying starting pitchers for average batted-ball exit velocity. Not to be glib, but I legitimately saw that figure and laughed. Hitters are averaging 92.3 mph exit velo off Ray. While the Cubs are 19th in the league collectively in average exit velocity (89.4 mph), they are one of only four teams whose average exit velocity is over 89.0 mph with an accompanying launch angle of 15.0+ degrees. The only team to have over an 89.0 average exit velocity with a 16.0+ launch angle? The San Francisco Giants.
Ben Brown has quietly had one of the more encouraging seasons for the Cubs’ rotation, but no matter—he’s only just barely better than Ray at minimizing hard contact. Hitters average 91.9 mph off Brown; that’s only good for the ninth percentile in the MLB.
No matter the howling Wrigley winds, either. It’s absolutely bonkers to me that the market is keeping the total line below nine runs for this game, despite the forecasted wind. It feels like it has 5-4 written all over it.
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 bases vs. Texas Rangers (+115)
Sox host the Rangers at Fenway, and righty-masher Wilyer Abreu is 2-for-3 with a double and a run scored against Mahle. That was on opening day of this year, and Mahle has since rounded into form as a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Rangers. He’s only thrown fewer than six innings and given up more than one earned run once since April 9th of this year. That’s a staggering early-season run.
While Abreu might not be the Mo Vaughn we all might have been hoping at the beginning of the season, he’s still incredibly effective on the strong side of the platoon against righties. The way the Red Sox play in 2025 has their offense either surging or searching, and tonight’s game comes after an absolute stinker last night (6-1 loss to these Rangers).
BVP numbers don’t mean much, especially when the sample size is coming from an Opening Day start. We’re just betting on Abreu to barrel one, and work a walk in another at bat.
Kerry Carpenter to hit a HR at Colorado Rockies (+380)
Let’s just play right into all of it, shall we? Coors Field—check. Plenty of folks, I’m sure, read this feature debunking the Coors Field effect in 2025, but please note that the only part of the “old strategy” it recommends maintaining is “loading up on visiting hitters.” Hello, Kerry.
Struggling rookie pitcher with a penchant for giving up hard contact—check. Dollander is just the second percentile in barrel rate against (18.9%) among qualifying starting pitchers.
Strong side of the plate—check. Carpenter’s mashing righties to the tune of an .984 OPS.
Hot hitter—check. Kerry has an OPS of exactly 1.000—exactly—over the last seven days.
Why not?
