The Minnesota Twins (16-20) head into tonight’s matchup with the Baltimore Orioles (13-21) on a hot streak, winning three straight. The Twins dominated Baltimore 9-1 in Game 1, and their momentum is as undeniable as the Orioles’ frowns are. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wendesday night baseball game between the Twins and the Orioles.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Twins vs. Orioles prediction, preview
On the mound for the Twins, Simeon Woods Richardson (2-2, 4.03 ERA) has been a pleasant surprise, especially at home, where he owns a 1.74 ERA. With a 9.76 ERA and 0-6 record for the Orioles, Charlie Morton has a nuclear-meltdown-level liability. Morton’s ERA spikes on the road (8.25), making him an easy target for the Twins’ lineup.
Minnesota’s offense is heating up. Byron Buxton leads the charge with a .267 average, eight homers, and 22 RBIs. He’s been especially effective against weaker pitching, and Morton fits that bill perfectly. Carlos Correa, another key bat for Minnesota, has been driving in runs, and the team’s depth is starting to shine with contributions from players like Ty France and Trevor Larnach. The Twins’ 3.53 team ERA ranks 8th in MLB, a testament to their pitching depth.
On the flip side, Baltimore’s offense has struggled to find consistency. They sit 23rd in MLB with a .223 team batting average and rank 28th in OPS. Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn have shown flashes, but they’re fighting an uphill battle against Woods Richardson’s steady hand. The Orioles have been plagued by injuries, with key players like Tyler O’Neill and Grayson Rodriguez unavailable. Baltimore’s K-rate of 8.8 strikeouts per game, 17th in MLB, illustrates their inability to consistently make solid contact.
Orioles vs. Twins pick, best bet
Statistically, Morton’s issues are even more glaring than his bloated ERA. He’s allowed seven home runs in just 27.2 innings, with a 1.38 WHIP. It’s not much better behind him. The Orioles’ bullpen ranks 29th with a 5.49 ERA, and opposing teams have posted a .287 batting average against them—second-worst in MLB. Baltimore has been unable to capitalize on opportunities, ranking 28th in team OPS with runners in scoring position (.577). This puts them in a tough spot against a Minnesota pitching staff that ranks eighth in team ERA at 3.53 and 5th in K/9 with 9.3 strikeouts per game.
The Twins have the advantage in nearly every category tonight: starting pitching, offensive depth, and bullpen stability. Baltimore has failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs, and their struggles against AL Central opponents continue. Minnesota’s pitching has been steady, and their offense is finding its rhythm at home, winning eight of their last nine at Target Field.
The Twins are positioned for another dominant win. With Morton struggling on the mound and Baltimore unable to find their offensive spark, Minnesota is the clear pick to cover the -1.5 spread.
Oh, and I think Royce Lewis to hit a home run at +500-or-longer is a wild value bet for tonight.
Best bet: Twins -1.5 (+145) vs. Orioles
Royce is back, baby!—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
