It’s been a bizarre start to the year for both the Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers. After Boston won on Wednesday, the two teams enter this contest as near-perfect mid. The Rangers, only two years removed from a World Series championship, are 18-19. The Boston Red Sox are a tidy 19-19. It’s unusual territory for two big spenders loaded with talent.
Though May has only begun, these two teams feel extra pressure in each game. Owners don’t want to shell out big bucks for non-playoff teams. Each loss brings these squads closer to selling territory at the deadline. Their players must find their intensity or face the possibility of finding a new home by August.
The Red Sox enter as -135 road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 9. Let’s take a look at the best bets for Thursday’s game.
Picks and Predictions
Over 9 (-122)
This isn’t the most inspiring pitching matchup you’ve ever seen. On the bump for Texas, you have Jack Leiter. The former second overall pick has stumbled to a 7.43 ERA across 13 total games and 10 starts. Facing a talented lineup with veteran sluggers isn’t a great get-on-track matchup. And it’s not much better on the Boston side.
Though Brayan Bello has a 2.55 ERA through his first three starts of the year, the underlying numbers don’t paint a rosy picture. For a ground ball pitcher, his 92.0 MPH average exit velocity is a concern. Over 42% of batted balls off Bello have been categorized as hard-hit. It’s no wonder his expected ERA is almost three runs higher than his actual ERA. The bill comes due sooner or later, and Texas is trying to get a dead-cat bounce after firing their hitting coach.
Wilyer Abreu 2+ Hits (+275)
After a 0-for-12 slump to begin the month of May, Wilyer Abreu has found his hitting stroke again. He’s 4-for-8 over his last two games, including a home run. One of the breakout stars of the young season, Wilyer needed to find some hits to get back on track.
Jack Leiter throws hard but doesn’t have a spectacular chase rate. Wilyer has been a patient killer with a low chase rate and high exit velocities all year. This matchup favors the young outfielder in a big way and will show up on the box score.
