Tomorrow afternoon, one of Arsenal or Paris Saint-Germain will have confirmed its place in the Champions League final, as the winner of tomorrow’s semifinal second leg will be just 90 minutes away from lifting the most prestigious trophy in European football for the first time. After an exciting first leg in London, PSG leads 1-0.
The French champions have rebuilt themselves wonderfully after losing Kylian Mbappé to Real Madrid in the summer. They haven’t missed a beat without him, having lost just twice in Ligue 1 and five times in the Champions League, and they’re just three matches away from the first treble in their history. Ousmane Dembélé has emerged out of Mbappé’s shadow to become one of the best strikers in Europe, and winter acquisition Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has made a huge impact, setting up Dembélé for the fourth-minute first-leg goal that proved to be decisive.
Arsenal has been solid but unspectacular in the Premier League, as it is on track to finish second for the third consecutive season, but it never seriously challenged for the title as Liverpool raced away with it and clinched the glory in the fifth-to-last game of the season. But the Gunners have been clinical in the Champions League, finishing third in the league phase before picking up a 9-3 aggregate win over PSV Eindhoven in the Round of 16 and a shocking 5-1 aggregate result against Real Madrid in the quarterfinals.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Paris is a -500 favorite to face Inter Milan — who outlasted Barcelona earlier this evening in a 4-3 thriller (7-6 on aggregate) — in the final on May 31 in Münich, with Arsenal at +350. PSG has +110 odds to win the second leg outright, with the Gunners at +225, and there are +270 odds that the teams will draw.
Arsenal at Paris Saint-Germain prediction, pick
These teams were fairly evenly matched in the first leg, with PSG possessing the ball for 51% of the match and uncorking 11 shots to Arsenal’s 10. The Gunners, however, produced the slightly better chances, with 1.7 expected goals to the French champions’ 1.2. In the end, the heroics of Gianluigi Donnarumma, who managed a spectacular diving save on Leandro Trossard’s 56th-minute effort, proved to be the difference. He made five saves to David Raya’s three, and Dembélé’s left-footed strike from the top of the box off of Kvaratskhelia’s low cross in the fourth minute was the only goal.
Both teams returned to their domestic leagues and put up uninspiring displays over the weekend in their tuneups prior to the second leg. The Gunners let Man City back into the fight for second by dropping a 2-1 home affair to AFC Bournemouth in which they produced better chances than the Cherries but couldn’t convert. Worse still, Arsenal started a full-strength XI, with Declan Rice playing 74 minutes, Bukayo Saka playing 86, and Martin Ødegaard playing all 90. PSG lost too, in a 2-1 affair to Strasbourg, but Kvaratskhelia was an unused substitute and it got just four of its 20 shots on target, tied for its second-worst performance of the season.
The Gunners’ defense is definitely better, to be fair, even after losing star center back Gabriel for the season with a hamstring injury. In the Champions League, Arsenal has conceded more than one goal just once, and it came in the second leg of the Round of 16 tie against Eindhoven in which the Gunners rested most of their best players. Raya is second in the competition in clean sheets, third in save percentage, and third in non-penalty expected goals minus goals conceded so far, and Donnarumma doesn’t rank in the top 10 in any of the major goalkeeping categories. Despite having one of the best right backs in the world in Achraf Hakimi, PSG has conceded two or more goals four times already this competition.
But Arsenal’s attack is a concern. Kai Havertz suffered a serious hamstring injury in February and will miss at least tomorrow’s match, although there’s some optimism that he could return before the end of the season. Saka, meanwhile, hasn’t played quite up to his usual form since returning from a hamstring injury of his own at the start of April. Mikel Merino and Trossard have split time leading the attack, but there’s a reason the Gunners are angling to sign either Alexander Isak or Viktor Gyökeres this summer. Meanwhile, PSG’s front three has been brilliant all season, leading the UCL in attacks and shots and ranking second in shots on target. With Raphinha’s and Lamine Yamal’s elimination from the Champions League, Dembélé is surely the favorite to win his first Ballon d’Or.
Ultimately, Parc des Princes will be rocking as the home side seeks to make its first Champions League final since 2020, and a narrow victory will be good enough to get the job done.
