The Timberwolves opened up short favorites over the Warriors for the series, and we’ve since seen a wave of Minnesota money extend the price out to -180. The Wolves have several matchup advantages in this one, as well as a significant “spot” advantage in Game 1. Of course, we did just see the Nuggets, off a Game 7 victory, pull a historic comeback in Oklahoma City with a notable rest disadvantage. But I’ll bet on that not happening again, as the Wolves have been off since defeating the Lakers in five games last Wednesday. Meanwhile, Golden State just had to go on the road to finish off a young Rockets team in Game 7 on Sunday night.
In many ways, the Timberwolves are similar to the Rockets — a young, defensive oriented team with a significant size advantage over the Warriors. But Minnesota also comes with a lot of additional factors that we can’t say about Houston — postseason experience, and an established go-to scorer in Anthony Edwards.
While I think the Warriors have more fight than the Lakers, a lot of similar matchup advantages for the Wolves exist. Rudy Gobert is coming off a career game, putting up 27 points and 24 rebounds in the series clincher in Los Angeles. Gobert presents a glaring mismatch in the paint for the Warriors, and should really be able to control the glass. Beyond Gobert, the Wolves have a slew of size to keep throwing at Golden State with Julius Randle and Naz Reid.
Edwards will also present the ultimate X-factor role in the series, giving Minnesota the star that Houston lacked to get over the hump. I’m expecting the Warriors to be scrambling on defense, particularly on the quick turnaround to Game 1. I played the Wolves to win Game 1 and the series when it came out at +115, and still like it at -115, which is available. I also am pairing Minnesota with the Celtics on a couple of parlays, buying low on Boston after dropping Game 1 to the Knicks. The C’s had some unfortunate luck from downtown in Game 1, and I expect adjustments, as well as those shots to start going down. Using Boston to buy down the series price on Minnesota and Game 1 price are another way I’ll be attacking the series.
Series Pick: Timberwolves Game 1/Series (+115) 1-unit – This means Minnesota must win Game 1 and the Series to cash
Series Pick: Timberwolves/Celtics (+101) 1-unit – This means Minnesota and Boston both must win Series to cash
Game 1 Pick: Timberwolves ML/Celtics Halftime/Fulltime (-105) 1-unit – This means Minnesota must win Game 1 and Boston must win the first half and full game in Game 2 to cash
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