The Golden State Warriors nearly blew another 3-1 lead. Nine years after the most infamous playoff collapse in NBA history, Golden State took three tries to close out the Houston Rockets, but its 103-89 triumph on Sunday night clinched its ticket to a second-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who upset the Los Angeles Lakers in five games.
These teams should be fairly evenly matched; during the regular season, Minnesota’s record was just one game better than the Warriors’. But that one game was critical, since the Timberwolves will have home-court advantage and they also have a significant rest advantage.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Minnesota is a 6.5-point favorite (-265 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 210. Meanwhile, Golden State is +215 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
Despite the Timberwolves’ status as an overwhelming favorite and their comparatively convincing display against the Lakers, bettors clearly aren’t sold, as they’ve attracted just 53% of the handle despite the odds implying that they have a 70% chance of victory. Big-money bettors are even more confident in the visitors, as those 47% of bets on the Warriors account for 55% of the handle. The Warriors, as four-time champions, do have more playoff experience, and they did win the season series 3-1, although all four games took place before the blockbuster deal that brought Jimmy Butler to the team.
The public is also fairly split on the spread, as 53% of bets have come in on Golden State to either win or to lose by fewer than six points. This season, the Warriors are 44-43-3 against the spread, while Minnesota is 43-43-1, so the parity among the public makes sense. But big-money bettors are extremely confident in the Timberwolves, as they’ve received a whopping 80% of the handle to win comfortably. In each of Golden State’s three regular-season wins, it also won against the spread, but in Minnesota’s first-round performance, it won against the spread in four of the five games.
Bettors are overwhelmingly high on both teams’ offenses, with 86% of bets and 89% of the handle coming in on more than 210 points to be scored. Both of these defenses have been great — in the first round, the Timberwolves had the league’s fourth-best defensive rating and the Warriors were eighth-best — but each team also had a top-half offense in its opening series. Three of Golden State’s last five games have gone over the total, while two of the Timberwolves’ last five have.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Naz Reid 20+ Points (+600)
- Jimmy Butler Under 22.5 Points (-120)
- Naz Reid 15+ Points + Rebounds (-175)
- Anthony Edwards 30+ Points (+105)
- Draymond Green Over 4.5 Assists (-140)
Evidently, Reid’s 23-point outburst in Minnesota’s Game 1 blowout in Los Angeles must be fresh on bettors’ minds, as the public is extremely confident in the 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year. It was only the scoring outburst that he had in the first round, as he averaged just 8.8 points per game in the last four games of the series, but there’s reason for bettors to be high on him. The undersized Warriors had a difficult time containing the Rockets’ double-big look of Alperen Şengün and Steven Adams, and Reid is a natural fit alongside Rudy Gobert because of his spacing. The Timberwolves will probably play a lot of minutes with both bigs on the floor, which should give Reid enough playing time to put up points if his shot is falling, and though he’s not a great rebounder, 15 combined P/R isn’t a particularly high bar.
The public is also backing Edwards, who may just be the most confident player in the league and is eager to prove that he’s capable of this high-profile matchup against an all-time legend in Stephen Curry after dispatching LeBron James in the first round. Edwards ranks 14th so far in these playoffs in usage rate and has reached the 30-point threshold once, when he nearly single-handedly carried Minnesota to an effectively series-sealing Game 4 win with a 43-point effort. He’s also an inconsistent shooter, as he went just five-for-19 from the field (zero-for-11 from beyond the arc) in Game 5.
The final two bets both pertain to Golden State players. Butler scored 23 or more points in three of his six games during the first round but also recorded single-digits points twice, although he got injured in Game 2 and only played eight minutes. Meanwhile, Green dished out five or more assists in both Games 6 and 7, but for the series, he only averaged 7.9 potential assists per game, a downturn from 10.8 per contest during the regular season. The Timberwolves allowed just 21.2 assists per game in the first round, the seventh-fewest of any team. They also allowed the fifth-fewest assists during the regular season.
