In tonight’s late-game NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs slate, the second-round series between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights kicks off. These two Western Conference contenders should be in for a competitive affair as the Oilers’ superstar duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl match up against the Golden Knights’ Jack Eichel and Mark Stone.
There’s an argument to be made for either team to succeed in this series — it’s difficult to pick against Edmonton with the best players on the ice, but Vegas maintains a fighting chance to advance. Here’s a detailed breakdown of this Oilers vs. Golden Knights series, including a prediction and top pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oilers vs. Golden Knights series preview
Edmonton Oilers
Whew, the Oilers’ first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Kings was an exhilarating one. Edmonton rattled off four straight wins to battle back from an 0-2 deficit and advance, but their chances of winning on any given night feel like a bit of a coin flip.
Sure, the Oilers flipped the switch in the opening round to emerge from Los Angeles with a series win against the NHL’s most dominant home team. It’s not that simple, though. They’ve allowed the second-most goals of any team through the playoffs thus far thanks to uncertainty at goalie as they shuffle starters between Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner. The latter entered the playoffs as the incumbent before allowing 11 goals across his two starts, earning a trip to the bench at the end of Game 2. Pickard took over in net across the remaining four contests, but his .893 SV% and 2.93 GAA rank 10th and 15th among the 19 goaltenders with at least one playoff start. Those are far from ideal numbers, and Pickard allowed at least three goals in three of his four starts, too.
With such unpredictable play between the posts, the Oilers’ offense must show up at peak performance every single night. Without a standout defense, winning the race to five or six goals looks like Edmonton’s only path to survive the second round. Of course, McDavid and Draisaitl’s high-level playoff production remains a steady anchor. The former is tied for second among all skaters in points with 11 this postseason, while his running mate sits tied for third with 10 of his own. Their supporting cast just has to keep firing — Chris Bouchard’s producing at a point-per-game pace right now, while three other Oilers all have five through the postseason so far.
Vegas Golden Knights
The opposing Golden Knights also vanquished their opponent in six games with a 4-2 series victory over the Minnesota Wild. Here’s our stat of the day: Vegas actually has a negative goal differential over the playoffs after being outscored 18-19 in the first round. The only two other teams to allow more goals than they netted, the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets, now face off on the opposite side of the Western Conference bracket.
If the Golden Knights want a chance to win this series, they’ll have to slay a couple of dragons first. Their offense certainly needs to iron out some kinks. Three goals per game isn’t going to cut it against the Oilers’ high-scoring attack, and Vegas’ stars aren’t performing up to par thus far. They don’t have a single player with more than five postseason points as Tomas Hertl and Jack Eichel are tied for the team lead, while Mark Stone and Shea Theodore come in second with four apiece. Eichel and Stone in particular are underperforming right now, so at least one of them needs to turn up the intensity to match their opponent.
While the Golden Knights’ star power doesn’t match that of the Oilers, their situation in goal feels quite similar. Adin Hill started all six playoff games for Vegas with a .880 SV% and 2.83 GAA to show for it. That save percentage in particular is tied for the fourth-worst mark among all goalies with at least one playoff start, so if it’s any consolation, their play in net is basically just as bad as the Oilers’.
Keys to the Series
The number-one storyline to watch is the injury status of Golden Knights forward Pavel Dorofeyev. The fourth-year forward plays on Vegas’ top line and produced 52 points along with seven game-winning goals during the regular season. His Game 5 injury against the Wild came at an unfortunate time and seems a bit cruel on the part of the hockey gods after Dorofeyev played all 82 regular-season games, but that’s the sport for you. He’ll miss Game 1 of this series but with a day-to-day designation, his potential return would provide a huge boost for this team. The longer he remains sidelined, the scarier it gets for Vegas.
The face-off battle will also be a deciding factor. With such shaky goalie play on both sides, any extra possessions present a massive risk for both teams. Vegas does boast the second-highest face-off win percentage in the playoffs at 52.6%, while Edmonton falls 12th at 48.0%. Vegas has to slow the game down and dominate possession to keep the puck away from McDavid and Draisaitl as much as humanly possible.
As in every postseason series, it would be a crime to neglect special teams as a deciding factor. The Oilers’ hold an advantage by the numbers with the second-best PP% of all playoff teams (38.5%, 5-for-13), but the Golden Knights aren’t far behind at sixth-best (5-for-18, 27.8%). The difference-maker lies in the penalty kill — Vegas sits eighth in PK% at 76.9% (three goals allowed on 13 kills), while Edmonton falls far behind with a 60% PK%, the worst of the entire playoff field (eight goals allowed on 20 chances). Edmonton needs to tighten up here, especially since Vegas scored two shorthanded goals in the first round.
Oilers vs. Golden Knights series prediction, pick
The series winner market odds on DraftKings Sportsbook indicate a very close best-of-seven matchup. The Oilers are slightly favored at -115, but the Golden Knights come in at -105 themselves. It’s essentially a toss-up at this point.
Vegas enters Game 1 of the series as -136 Moneyline favorites on their home ice, with a game total of 6.5 combined goals. In all likelihood, the home team sees favored odds in each contest. That total is likely to increase with the poor goalie play barring a hot streak by either side’s netminder, so taking advantage of the over could be advantageous for Game 1 bettors.
The series winner splits on DKSB also indicate a toss-up in terms of handle, with 51% of the money on the Oilers as opposed to 49% on the Golden Knights. For a clearer picture of how the public is betting the series, though, check out the percentage of bets. About 66% of total wagers favor the Oilers to win the series as the betting public takes the team with the two best players in the series.
That’s the smarter move, too. Edmonton’s superstar pairing of McDavid and Draisaitl can find the net at will and make the game easier for teammates simply due to the defensive attention they demand while on the ice. While Jack Eichel is a top talent, Vegas’ best player doesn’t reach the same stratosphere as his all-world opponents. In a series without an elite presence in either net, backing the squad with the higher offensive upside simply makes sense. Oilers in six.
Top Pick: EDM Oilers Series Winner (-115)
