The Warriors and Timberwolves will begin their second round series with Game 1 in Minnesota on Tuesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Timberwolves are a 6.5-point favorite and this game carries a total of 210 points.
Below, I break down Game 1 between the Warriors and the Timberwolves and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors preview, prediction
The Warriors enter this second round series after defeating the Rockets in seven games in the first round, while the Timberwolves defeated the Lakers in five games in the first round. Both the Warriors and Timberwolves were the lower seeds of their first round matchups. Minnesota has the rest advantage over Golden State entering Game 1, as the Timberwolves haven’t played since last Wednesday, while the Warriors just closed out Houston this past Sunday.
Golden State and Minnesota are very similar teams, as they both are great defensive clubs that rely on their outside shooting on the offensive end. Both these teams rank inside the top-seven in defensive rating and the top-five in made three-pointers per game this season. In the regular season, the Warriors and Timberwolves faced each other four times and Golden State went 3-1 in the season series. Two of these victories were by double-digits and notably, all three of these wins for the Warriors came before they acquired Jimmy Butler from the Heat.
In those four matchups between the Warriors and Timberwolves, Stephen Curry and Anthony Edwards were both excellent for their clubs, scoring 28.8 and 26.0 PPG, respectively. The problem for Minnesota was that outside of Edwards, no other player really contributed on the offensive end, as only once in these four matchups did another Timberwolves player score over 20 points. The Warriors took the approach of letting Edwards run the show but shut down everyone else, and Golden State’s defense will likely continue with that strategy in this series.
Another huge factor is that the Warriors now have Butler at the helm and they have been much better with the veteran, especially on the defensive end. Golden State is the No. 1 rated defense in the NBA since trading for Butler at the trade deadline in February and it is 27-10 with him active. The Warriors almost certainly would have eliminated the Rockets quicker in the first round if Butler didn’t essentially miss two games with a pelvis contusion and barring another unexpected injury, Golden State is going to be a very tough out.
The Timberwolves are ascending right now after their 4-1 series victory over the Lakers, but Los Angeles was a very overrated and disconnected group, and Minnesota should come down to earth when it faces Golden State in Game 1.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors pick, best bet
While the Timberwolves have home court Tuesday, the Warriors are simply the better team and they should steal Game 1 in Minnesota. The Timberwolves also have a few more days of rest in their favor, but as we have seen so far in the second round of these playoffs, extra rest hasn’t been an advantage and the team that has played more recently has had the upper hand. Despite having more rest than their opponents and home court for Game 1, the Cavaliers, Thunder and Celtics all were upset in Game 1 of their second round series the last few days. Minnesota is only 2-2 when coming off 4+ days of rest this season and at an appealing +215 price on the moneyline, backing the Warriors for the upset in Game 1 is a great call.
