How about last week’s Champions League semifinal between Barcelona and Internazionale? It had everything — a goal inside the first minute by Marcus Thuram, a wonderful finish by 17-year-old Lamine Yamal, a brace by Denzel Dumfries, a rocket from outside the box from Raphinha that ended up going down as one of the most impressive own goals you’ll ever see, and a go-ahead strike nullified by offsides. At the end of 90 minutes, though, the score line stood 3-3, with all to play for in Tuesday’s Leg 2.
PSG has a clear edge headed into the second leg, as it leads over Arsenal headed back to the French capital, but a 1-0 leg is never secure, so Wednesday’s match should hold plenty of intrigue as well.
DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of bets available every week for the UCL. Here are my four favorites from the next two days, with two bets from each game.
First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures:
FC Barcelona at Inter Milan, 3 p.m. ET, May 6 (3-3 on aggregate)
Arsenal at Paris Saint-Germain, 3 p.m. ET, May 7 (Paris Saint-Germain leads 1-0 on aggregate)
Barcelona Win and U3.5 Goals (+255)
Each team’s attack in the first game were on fire — 19 total shots for Barcelona, seven for Inter — and only seven saves from Yann Sommer held the scoreline to a draw. It was the first time in the entire competition that the Nerrazzuri allowed more than two goals in any match. Inter could’ve made it four of its own in the 75th minute, but Henrikh Mkhitaryan was offside by literally a toe. That’s not to mention a miraculous 91st-minute save by Sommer on a Raphinha long shot that was screaming towards the top of the net and two Lamine Yamal shots that hit the woodwork.
It’s hard to expect six goals again, and in fact, it’s probably more likely that both teams will play fairly conservatively now that the away goals tiebreaker — which would’ve given the Italians a huge edge — no longer exists. Both teams know that just one goal could be good enough to win the match, so if the Blaugrana take the lead early, expect them to sit back and prevent getting beaten on the counter. It’s highly unlikely that Inter will score three goals again — Wojciech Szczęsny faced a shot on target without recording a save for just the second time all season and allowed three goals for just the fifth time in a Barça kit — and the soon-to-be Spanish champions don’t need to win by more than a goal.
Simply, Barça was the better side in the first leg, as they have been all season. Not only did they uncork 12 more shots than the slumping Nerrazzuri, they won the expected-goal battle, 1.4 to 0.8, claimed 71% possession, and had 341 touches in the attacking third to Inter’s 65. Plus, they’re getting healthier: it’s been confirmed that Robert Lewandowski will return for the second leg, while Lautaro Martínez’s status is still in question for Inter, and though Szczęsny will start, Marc-André ter Stegen is available off the bench. The Blaugrana will make their first UCL final since 2015.
Raphinha to Score or Give Assist (-110)
Of all the goals in last Wednesday’s match, Raphinha’s non-goal was arguably the most impressive. It came off of Dani Olmo’s corner, which he passed on the ground towards the top of the box. Yamal stepped over it, and Raphinha fired with his left foot, smashing it off the top of the woodwork and straight into the helpless Sommer’s back. Technically, it went down as a Sommer save and own goal, leaving the Brazilian one goal shy of the competition’s lead — currently held by the eliminated Borussia Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy — but everyone who saw the goal knows that it was Raphinha’s doing.
It also surprised nobody. The Brazilian has been absurd this season, leading the Champions League in goal contributions and ranking second in La Liga in the same category, and it’s likely that either he or Yamal will walk away with the Ballon d’Or in October. He’s had at least one goal contribution in all but three Champions League matches so far, including an assist to Ferrán Torres for Barça’s second goal in the first leg. His primary matchup on the left, Dumfries, is an incredibly prolific attacker for a right back, but ranks in just the fourth percentile in interceptions, fifth percentile in clearances, and 18th percentile in tackles, so Raphinha should find plenty of success on Tuesday. There is also speculation that Inter could double-mark Yamal, which would leave even more space for Raphinha to operate.
Paris Saint-Germain Moneyline (+110)
This is kind of a boring play, since I picked PSG to win in the first leg as well. But nothing in that first leg showed that Arsenal is quite as good as the French champions. Sure, the Gunners won the expected-goal battle, 1.7 to 1.2, and fired five shots on goal to PSG’s four. But PSG was both more comfortable defensively and more clinical in attack, with Ousmane Dembélé — another Ballon d’Or candidate — putting his team in control of the game in the fourth minute. Arsenal doesn’t have a true number nine — at least until it signs either Alexander Isak or Viktor Gyökeres this summer — which has been its undoing all season. The Gunners just lost 2-1 to Bournemouth in the Premier League despite starting a full-strength starting XI, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Paris is coming off a loss in Ligue 1, too, but Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was an unused substitute in that game.
PSG has lost just three times and drawn thrice at Parc des Princes all season. But it has produced the better chances in every single home match that it has played, and it is 18-2-3 in all competitions with Kvaratskhelia in the lineup. Arsenal is obviously a great team, but it has looked at least a little bit worse since losing Gabriel to a season-ending hamstring injury. PSG has taken more shots than any other team in the competition and has recorded more shots on target than any other squad but Bayern. David Raya has been fantastic, recording an 84.8% save percentage so far in the competition, but he’s allowed at least one goal in four of his last five matches.
Gianluigi Donnarumma 4+ Saves (+210)
The 26-year-old Italian was fantastic in the first leg, saving each of the Gunners’ five shots on target to give his team a narrow edge. In fact, Leandro Trossard’s 41st minute volley was the single best chance of the entire match by post-shot expected goals, as he lofted it towards the top left corner off a Mikel Merino cross, but Donnarumma judged it well to come up with an easy save. Trossard had another brilliant chance on a fast break from the left wing in the 56th minute, but Donnarumma managed to deflect the low, left-footed strike shot just past the right post. Tuesday’s match marked Donnarumma’s fifth five-save effort of the season.
Both of Trossard’s shots came off of long balls; his first attempt was set up by a Raya free kick from the midfield third, and his second by a Declan Rice through ball. There’s no reason why PSG should risk being beaten on the counter-attack again, so, clinging to a one-goal lead, it’ll likely roll out more defensive tactics and let the brilliant quintet of Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, and Nuno Mendes do what they do best. Arsenal is excellent from set pieces and Donnarumma may well give up plenty of corners, but until the Gunners get on the board, letting them fire away through traffic is the home side’s best chance at reaching its first Champions League final since 2020.
