The race for the NBA Championship is down to eight teams with second-round matchups now starting up. The New York Knicks will challenge the defending champion Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference semi-finals after defeating the Detroit Pistons in the opening round.
New York took some significant swings in the offseason to challenge this Celtics team. They traded for Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges this offseason as an attempt to round out their roster into a true contender. Despite this, Boston holds -800 odds of advancing in the series with the Knicks listed at +550 odds of moving on. This number will surely change following the result of tonight’s opening matchup.
Heading into Game 1, the Celtics are 9-point favorites and -380 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Knicks hold +300 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 213 for this matchup.
Here are my favorite prop bets for this Eastern Conference semi-finals series opening matchup.
Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists (-115)
New York may have made some significant offseason roster shakeups, but it is still evident that this team will only go as far as Jalen Brunson can take them. The star guard lived up to his Clutch Player of the Year title in the opening round, delivering the crucial shot for this Knicks team whenever it was needed. He will need to shine in this series for the Knicks to have a chance, but Boston will not make life easy. While the surrounding group is more talented than years’ past, expect the Celtics to be far more willing to live with their scoring outputs and make a clear effort to get the ball out of Brunson’s hands.
Across the regular season, Brunson averaged 26.0 points and 7.3 assists per game. He tallied over 6.5 assists in 37 of the 65 games he played. In the opening playoff round, he averaged 31.5 points and 8.2 assists per game. The two-time All-Star tallied over 6.5 assists in all six games. Brunson is averaging 12.5 potential assists per game and has done a nice job leveraging his threat as a scorer to open up opportunities for others.
While Detroit had a more than respectable defense, Boston will take things up another level in this round. They finished the regular season ranked second in opponents’ points allowed, third in opponents’ three-point percentage, second in opponents’ field goal percentage, and fourth in defensive rating. Across the four regular-season matchups, Brunson was limited to 26.8 points and 5.3 assists per game against the Celtics. Expect a more conscious effort by Boston to limit Brunson’s impact as a scorer, and for him to need to fill a role as more of a traditional point guard. He is playmaking at a high level, having tallied seven or more assists in all six of the opening round’s games, and I like his chances of reaching this number in the round two series opener tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+150)
The opening round of the playoffs was one to forget for Kristaps Porzingis. The 7-foot-2 center was limited to 12.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.0 assists per game. He shot just 35.2% from the field and 11.8% from beyond the three-point arc against the Magic. This comes after Porzingis averaged 19.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists across the regular season while shooting 48.3% from the floor and 41.2% from beyond the three-point arc.
Porzingis struggled against the physical and deep Orlando frontcourt, but this will not be the same against this Knicks team. New York will keep their rotation short. Expect Boston to make a clear effort to attack Karl-Anthony Towns, who will be the worst individual defender on the floor. Porzingis has faced the Knicks seven times since joining the Celtics. He has shot 26-for-52 from beyond the three-point arc in these matchups (50.0%). The former All-Star has made at least two three-pointers in each of these matchups, as many as eight in a game, and at least three made perimeter shots in five of these seven games.
The standard three-point prop for Porzingis is set at 1.5, with the over favored at -175 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. I obviously like this number as well, but think it is worth taking it a step further and capitalizing on the +150 odds for Porzingis to connect on three long-range shots. New York greatly struggled against Myles Turner last season in the playoffs, who is also a floor-spacing big man. Boston leans into their three-point attack at an even greater rate, and Towns’ limitations as a defender make this an even greater concern. Look for Porzingis to be ready to perform against his former team and knock down at least three three-pointers tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+220)
While the defensive shortcomings cannot be fully ignored as a factor in the series, Karl-Anthony Towns’ offensive ability is why it was worth taking the big offseason swing on the trade. Towns is the self-proclaimed best big-man shooter of all time, and flashed his abilities with the Knicks all year. He averaged 24.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game across the regular season while shooting 42.0% from beyond the three-point arc. Through the opening playoff series, Towns averaged 19.7 points and 10.0 rebounds while shooting 48.0% on three-point attempts.
The three-point battle will be a notable storyline throughout this series. Boston launches shots from the perimeter at an all-time high rate. This has become the foundation of their offensive production, and it is tough to argue the results for the defending champions. This season, they attempted an NBA-best 48.2 three-point attempts per game and connected at a 36.8% rate. No other team in the league attempted more than 42.4 per game (the Warriors), and New York ranked 27th in the league in three-point volume by attempting 34.1 per game.
Trading two points for three points is a losing battle, and New York will need to increase their production from beyond the arc. Expect Towns to be the biggest beneficiary of this, with the Knicks not doing a good enough job of creating three-point looks for him in the overall sample size of the season. Towns shot an impressive 7-for-11 from beyond the three-point arc in the four matchups in the regular season, but expect an increased volume of opportunities from beyond the perimeter across this series. The five-time All-Star has his standard three-point prop set at 1.5 with the over favored at -135 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, but I am taking it a step forward for Towns to connect with three perimeter shots in the series opener at +220 odds.
