Major League Baseball has 10 games on the schedule this Monday night as 20 teams get the work week started with a new series. Three divisional matchups are on the board, and some interesting interleague series are also starting across the diamonds. In this post, we’ll look at my top three starting pitcher prop bets from Monday night’s action, including plays from Griffin Canning, Luis Severino and AJ Smith-Shawver.
Every day of the season, DraftKings Sportsbook offers multiple ways to get in on the action with player props, Moneylines and picks against the spread from each MLB contest. You can also pick series winners, award winners and team futures as well, so be sure to check out all the options available on the MLB page of DK Sportsbook.
Here is a look at my top starting pitcher prop bets for this Monday night.
Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Griffin Canning to Record a Win (+170)
Canning was my top value starting pitcher for the day, and Canning to get the win is the best value in my starting pitcher prop bets as well. He gets the start on Monday night in Arizona as the Mets try to bounce back after dropping both games of their doubleheader in St. Louis.
Canning is 4-1 in his first six starts with the Mets this season and has put together a solid 2.61 ERA, 3.25 FIP and 31 strikeouts in his 31 innings. He won each of his last four starts, including tough matchups with the Phillies, Cardinals, and Athletics in Sacramento. Even though it’s not an ideal spot against the Dbacks, he has shown he can overcome the matchup and earn the victory.
He’ll go head-to-head with Ryne Nelson, who is making a spot start in place of Corbin Burnes. Nelson has a 5.82 ERA and 2.19 FIP in his seven games out of the bullpen this season. He was a starter for much of the last two seasons but struggled at Chase Field with a much higher home ERA than on the road.
The Mets offense was finding a good groove before a quiet Sunday when they lost a pair of one-run games in St. Louis. With a favorable matchup, they should give Canning enough run support against Nelson to extend his streak of starts with a win.
Luis Severino over 2.5 runs allowed (-120)
Severino has been solid as the Athletics’ big offseason acquisition, but he has struggled to contain opponents at Sutter Health Park, where he’ll face the Mariners this Monday night in this AL West series opener.
On the season, he has allowed 16 earned runs in seven starts (2.3 runs per game) but in his four home starts, he has allowed 14 earned runs (3.5 runs per game). He gave up at least three runs in three of those four outings, including his most recent home outing against the White Sox in six innings.
He has typically worked deep into the game, so I don’t like taking him under his outs total, but I do think he’ll struggle against Seattle. The Mariners offense caught fire over the last few weeks, as I broke down in my MLB Stacks for today. They should be able to do enough damage to push Severino over this run total at Sutter Health Park, where their power potential should play well.
Starting Pitcher Race to 3 Strikeouts (Both Pitchers Must Start): AJ Smith Shawver over Brady Singer (-165)
In the last of my three starting pitcher prop bets on Monday, I’m taking Smith-Shawver to beat Brady Singer to three strikeouts as Elly De La Cruz and the Reds roll into Atlanta.
At just 22, Smith-Shawver has had to step up more than expected this season due to Spender Strider (hamstring) dealing with multiple injuries. Smith-Shawver has made four starts in the majors with 22 strikeouts across 19 innings. He has also logged 9 1/3 innings in Triple-A for the Gwinnett Stripers and had 13 strikeouts in that work.
His 10.4 K/9 is higher than the more experienced Singer’s rate of 9.7 K/9. Singer has 36 strikeouts in his 33 1/3 innings. The Reds also have a higher K% over the last two weeks with 22.7% K% compared to the Braves 17.6% K% over that same period.
The two would be close if they were on even ground, but this matchup is tilted towards Smith-Shawver since he gets to pitch each inning first as the home starting pitcher.
Smith-Shawver is a solid pick that I like in a variety of props, but this race to three strikeouts is a fun quick hitter to give your bankroll an early boost this Monday.
