We are an immediate satisfaction society. Heck, it’s why MLB instituted the pitch clock and attempted to make games end faster. However, even with the average game time waaaaay down, if you’re looking for the quickest action on the board for baseball, it’s a NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
Here are my favorite spots for a NRFI bet on Monday night’s slate.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-125)
While there are many ways to score in baseball, the quickest and easiest end to a NRFI bet is a home run. Fortunately, with these two teams, that shouldn’t be too large a worry on Monday.
Entering play this evening, the White Sox have hit 26 long balls and the Royals have hit 25, good for the 27th and 29th most in MLB, respectively. These two squads simply do not possess a lot of power and that’s led to some pretty underwhelming offensive returns. Kansas City ranks 27th in wRC+ (82). Chicago comes in just behind with an 81 wRC+ that is the second-lowest mark in the league.
Let’s also not overlook the pitching matchup. Putting aside his last outing, where he was dealing with a groin issue, Cole Ragans has been fantastic in 2025, with a 2.45 xERA and an impressive 35.9% strikeout rate. On the other side, we find the White Sox’s new ace: Rookie Shane Smith. The 25-year-old has registered a 2.23 ERA across 32.1 innings of work. Smith’s surrendered just a single home run in his six outings.
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (+105)
While I have some concerns about how Ryne Nelson will ware the deeper he works into what will be his first start of the season, that worry is lessened in the first inning. Nelson’s simply been quite effective as a reliever so far in 2025, despite an ERA that’s been inflated by a hilariously small 48.4% strand rate. Across 17.0 innings of work, Nelson’s got a 2.19 FIP to go along with a 27.4% strikeout rate and a 5.00 K/BB ratio. Will be make it to the fifth? It’s unclear. Yet I do think he’ll be able to come out of the gates strong.
Then there’s Griffin Canning, who has been among the most surprising storylines of the young season. Canning sports a 2.61 ERA and a 3.27 FIP over his first six starts of 2025. Canning’s also in possession of a 1.54 ERA in his first trip through an opposing batting order, a split in which he’s yet to surrender a home run. I’d expect the good times to keep rolling in a matchup with the Diamondbacks, as the team has struggled to a .114 ISO and an 88 wRC+ over the past week.
