Happy Cinco de Mayo on the MLB diamond! We’ve got aces like Ragans, Miller, and Severino set to hit the bump tonight. Between games like the Mariners vs. A’s, Cubs vs. Giants, Nationals vs. Guardians, and more Mets vs. Diamondbacks, we’ve got a full bill of high-voltage games. Having said that, below are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants over 7.5 runs (-105)
The Cubs’ lineup has been so good this year that it’s tough to evaluate betting angles based on lefty/righty splits. Your first thought goes to the heavy contributions from left-handed hitters in the Chicago order: Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, to name the hottest trio of them. Really, the only batter in the entire lineup whose predictably floundered against lefties is Busch, to the tune of a .528 OPS in the 2025 campaign. I was a little surprised when I saw the Cubs so heavily-favored (even at home) against Giants’ starter, southpaw Landen Roupp. But it makes sense now. Seiya Suzuki (1.131 lefty OPS), Dansby Swanson (1.087), Tucker (.940), Ian Happ (.931), Nico Hoerner (.890), and PCA (.793) all handle lefties with bat-to-ball violence.
Chicago starter Matthew Boyd has been much better at home than away, and he’ll welcome the return to Wrigley after two road starts in which he gave up 16 hits in 11-plus innings, as well as four walks and two home runs. His 3.79 FIP looks almost identical to his 2024 FIP/ERA numbers, so expect some regression against a stubborn Giants’ lineup. They’re 10-8 on the road with 22 wins. That’s, somehow, better than these headline-making Chicago Cubs.
Let’s stay away altogether from sides in this game and just bet the total. Boyd will regress, the Cubs should keep hitting—and, even if we see some regression to the mean for those above OPSes, that’d still mean they fall to just about league-average levels—and Landen Roupp’s 3.87 FIP suggests four runs from the Cubs is well within reach.
Take the o7.5.
Jake Irvin 6+ hits allowed (-120) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Another Jake Irvin start for Washington, another opportunity to lay some points. We took them at +1.5 against the Phillies last week (Sanchez start) for -115 and got absolutely blown up, but that might be more an indication of the Phillies’ ascending (both in age and performance!) lineup and less about Irvin himself.
The Phillies lineup is scary—scarier still at home; can we forgive Irvin for that start? Before that, he had three stellar starts—one against Pittsburgh, one at Colorado, and his most recent against the Mets. During that stretch, he’s surrendered just three runs on 11 hits across 20.2 innings.
So let’s find a different way to get in on Irvin tonight, shall we? We know he’ll eat innings, but his game log has shown a marked uptick in opponents’ bat-to-ball success. That has yet to prompt the Nats to take him off the mound before he gets into the sixth inning. Against a Cleveland offense that just got sizzling in their most recent series against both the Twins and the Blue Jays, Irvin will stick around long enough to give up six knocks.
Bryce Miller to record a win (+180) vs. Sacramento A’s
Not the start to the season many fantasy managers or M’s fans had hoped for for Mr. Miller. His outs-recorded line is set at only 15.5 tonight, so the market has him just clearing 5.0+ innings. He’s only failed to clear five once this season, but has yet to clear six in any of his starts. That’s fine! We’ll take the five for a W bet!
My colleague—and favorite baseball mind—Zach Thompson plugged the Mariners’ home splits in his MLB DFS Stacks article today. I, like him, am high on the Mariners’ offense against Luis Severino.
The Mariners are in Sacramento in the last game of the night as they visit the Athletics at Sutter Health Park. They’ll face Luis Severino ($7,900), but their spot at the top of MLB stacks is more about the environment and their form than their matchup against Severino. Severino is 1-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 3.71 FIP. He has been great on the road (0.95 ERA, 2.86 FIP) but has been hammered at home (5.11 ERA, 4.37 FIP). Across four home starts, he has given up four home runs and 15 runs in 24 2/3 home innings this season.
The M’s hit 17 homers over the last two weeks while averaging 6.4 runs per game. They are hitting .287 with a team with a .373 team wOBA that is second in the majors over that span behind only the Dodgers.
This is the spot Miller needs to get his third win of the season to get his record to 3-3.
