Tonight’s MLB slate kicks off in Miami, where we’ve got a battle between teams on the opposite ends on the National League spectrum. The NL West leading Dodgers travel to South Florida to take on a Marlins squad that has exceeded some expectations in 2025, yet still sits dead-last in a stacked NL East.
Los Angeles lost 4-3 to Atlanta on Sunday, halting a seven-game win streak. Can the Dodgers get a new streak started on Monday? Let’s break down this matchup with some odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Marlins prediction, preview
There’s only one place to start with this matchup: Sandy Alcantara. Above, I mentioned Los Angeles’ prior seven-game win streak, and that included a 15-2 victory over Miami last Tuesday — a contest where Alcantara surrendered seven runs in only 2.2 innings. Woof.
That has been a theme so far in 2025 for the former NL Cy Young award winner. Alcantara was impressive in Spring Training and he got some people’s hopes up on Opening Day, looking overpowering against the Pirates. However, it’s been all downhill since. The RHP owns an 8.31 ERA and his 6.37 xERA isn’t much better. The main issue isn’t too complex. It’s simply a lack of strikeouts and far too many walks. Alcantara’s velocity is fine, yet his 15.8% strikeout rate is currently a career-low, while his 14.2% walk rate is twice as high as its been this decade. Things are not going well for an asset that many believed the Marlins would try and trade for a haul at this year’s deadline.
Ben Casparius is the other probable for this tilt. The 26-year-old is yet another developmental success story for the Dodgers organization. A fifth-round pick in 2021, Casparius is currently transitioning from the bullpen to Los Angeles’ rotation. The right-hander made his first MLB start back on April 23, then followed that up with a 3.2-inning bulk performance versus the Pirates on April 27. Casparius threw a season-high 54 pitches in that contest, and it’s likely he’ll be looking at a pitch count between 65-70 on Monday. For the season, Casparius owns a 1.96 FIP and a 27.1% strikeout rate over 21.2 innings of work.
Casparius will go up against a Miami lineup that was projected to be the worst in baseball back in March, but has actually been far more middle-of-the-pack in 2025. To wit, the Marlins enter this game ranking 17th in wOBA (.308). Kyle Stowers has been the team’s star, posting a 154 wRC+ in his 124 plate appearances, including a game-winning grand slam off Mason Miller this past Saturday. Dane Myers, Matt Mervis and rookie Agustin Ramirez have also been quite solid for the fish.
Dodgers vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Alcantara hasn’t been successful within any split in 2025, but it’s notable how awful he’s been specifically against LHBs, with the veteran giving up a .387 OBP and 2.08 home runs per nine to lefties. That seems like bad news with the Dodgers in town, as Alcantara will have to deal with the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. Things could — and probably will — get ugly.
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani 2+ Total Bases (-125)
Ohtani has cleared this prop in six of his last eight games. He owns a 1.030 OPS against RHPs in 2025.
Strong Lean: Dodgers -1.5 (-135)
Los Angeles is 18-16 on the run line. It also beat Miami by 13 runs with Alcantara on the mound less than a week ago.
