The Celtics are hosting the Knicks for Game 1 of their second series in Boston on Monday.
Let’s explore how the public is betting Game 1 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
Most bettors are expecting the defending champion Celtics to take care of business on their home floor in Game 1, with 73% of the handle and 79% of the bets on the moneyline backing the Celtics at -395. Boston swept New York 4-0 in the regular season and the Celtics’ point differential was +16.3 in these matchups, so Boston seeing most of the money and bets on the moneyline is expected. However, spread wise, 57% of the handle is on the Knicks +9, while 52% of the bets are on the Celtics -9. More of the money being on the Knicks to cover is a product of the Celtics being a subpar 20-24 ATS as a home favorite this season. That being said, Jrue Holiday (hamstring) is returning for Boston, meaning their starting five will all be available and with their first unit intact over the last two seasons, the Celtics have been dominant with a 53-16 record. Also, Boston hasn’t played since last Tuesday and they are 4-0 ATS when playing with 4+ days of rest in their favor this season. In this situation, backing the Celtics at -9 is the right call.
For the total, most are on the over, with 71% of the handle and 77% of the bets on over 213 points. This is no surprise, as the Celtics and Knicks four regular season matchups produced 233.8 PPG and all these contests easily went over 213 points. In fact, the lowest total of these four games was 223 points. While this is the playoffs and the defensive intensity will be elevated, the Celtics and Knicks both rank inside the top-five in offensive rating this season and 213 points is simply too low of a total for these two teams going head-to-head.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top-five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Payton Pritchard 4+ Made Three Pointers (+550)
- Payton Pritchard 5+ Made Three Pointers (+1100)
- Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points (-125)
- Jayson Tatum Under 9.5 Rebounds (-145)
- Jalen Brunson Under 27.5 Points (-115)
The two most popular player prop bets for Game 1 are Pritchard for 4+ and 5+ made three pointers. Evident in these two wager carrying long odds, these bets are unlikely to cash and them being the most popular player props for this game is very puzzling with the Celtics at full strength. Pritchard is the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year this season, but his role and numbers naturally decline when Boston has their starting five available. This will be the 26th time this season the Celtics have had their first unit active and in those games, Pritchard is only averaging 2.8 made three pointers in 24.4 minutes per game. Pritchard only hit multiple three pointers in one of Boston’s four matchups with the Knicks in the regular season and he hit six in that contest, but this was a product of both Kristaps Porzingis and Holiday being inactive. Additionally, this tilt was a 27-point blowout win for the Celtics, which led to some extra work in garbage time for Pritchard. A major blowout in Game 1 is one of the only true paths for Pritchard to hit 4+ or 5+ three pointers tonight, so if looking to peruse one of these longshot three pointer bets for the guard, parlaying it with the Celtics to cover -9 is sharp.
The third-most popular player prop for Game 1 is a much more logical option in Tatum for over 27.5 points at -125. The forward torched the Knicks for 33.5 PPG in his four matchups with the division rival in the regular season and Tatum scored 32+ points in three of these four contests. Plus, the superstar is coming off an impressive first round series against the Magic, scoring 35+ points in his final three starts of the best of seven. Ranking second in defensive rating this season, Orlando is a much more difficult matchup than the Knicks, who rank 11th in the metric, and Tatum is an excellent bet for over 27.5 points on Monday.
The fourth-most popular player prop for Game 1 again belongs to Tatum, this time for the forward to post under 9.5 rebounds at a favorited -145 price. In the regular season, Tatum averaged 6.8 rebounds per game against the Knicks and he only cleared 9.5 rebounds in one of his four matchups with New York. The Knicks are giving up the fourth-fewest rebounds to power forwards this season and Tatum is a strong bet for under 9.5 rebounds in this spot.
Lastly, Brunson for under 27.5 points is the fifth-most bet player prop for Game 1. The Celtics have one of the best defensive backcourts in the NBA with Holiday and Derrick White, and Boston limited Brunson to under 27.5 points in all but one of his four matchups with the Celtics in the regular season. Boston is giving up the third-fewest points to point guards this season and backing Brunson for under 27.5 points in this tough spot makes a ton of sense.
