This is one of those slate’s where you’re going to have to keep an eye on the weather report. There’s rain expected all day long in the New York area, which means there’s a reasonable chance that the Yankees and the Padres never take the field. That would turn an eight-game featured slate into a seven-game one.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s break down my top MLB DFS picks for the evening.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Sinker de Mayo [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox, $10,300 – Ragans was underwhelming in his last outing on April 24, yet I’m willing to chalk those woes up to a groin strain. Now back in good health, expect the big left-hander to get back on track in a good matchup on Monday. In 30.2 innings of work in 2025, Ragans owns a 2.45 xERA and a massive 35.9% strikeout rate — the third-highest mark in baseball among qualified starters. Meanwhile, the White Sox possess the league’s seventh-highest team strikeout rate (23.1%). They also sit 29th in ISO (.112) and 28th in wRC+ (81). In short, Chicago isn’t a very good baseball club. Take advantage.
Value
Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, $7,000 – It’s a battle of “aces” in Kansas City, as Smith will oppose Ragans and the Royals. Honestly, I don’t feel too bad about using the term in regards to the rookie RHP, who has been fantastic to start 2025. Smith’s strikeout rate is nowhere close to the 29.6% rate he managed across two levels in the minors in 2024, yet Smith’s currently maintaining a 2.23 ERA and a 3.44 FIP. Smith’s also allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his six outings. At some point, a 3.0% HR/FB ratio is going to regress, but I have my doubts that’ll it’ll be this evening. Kansas City’s .123 ISO is the fifth-lowest mark in all of MLB.
INFIELD
Stud
Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, $4,500 – Chapman only had two hits this past weekend, as the veteran third baseman continues to bat below the Mendoza Line (.198). Still, both those hits were home runs. So that’s something. Chapman has always preferred to hit against LHPs and nothing about his profile has changed so far in 2025. In 35 plate appearances within the split, Chapman is slashing .308/.486/.500 with a 184 wRC+ and a team-high .420 expected wOBA. Matt Boyd ($8,300) would be wise to ignore the surface stats and tread carefully.
Stud
Jorge Polanco, Seattle Mariners at Athletics, $4,400 – Let’s just say that Luis Severino ($7,900) has not enjoyed his time pitching at Sutter Health Park. In three road starts in 2025, Severino sports a pristine 0.95 ERA. In his four outings in Sacramento, the right-hander’s ERA shoots up to 5.11. With this in mind, tonight should be the perfect opportunity to keep riding Polanco’s hot bat. The 31-year-old has nine home runs in just 87 plate appearances this season, an eye-popping ratio which translates out to a .486 expected wOBA and a 245 wRC+.
Value
Christian Walker, Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers, $3,800 – It took about a month, but Walker is finally starting to look like himself in the batter’s box. The overall numbers in 2025 are still pretty poor, yet since April 22, Walker is slashing .279/.311/.512 with a .233 ISO and a 134 wRC+. Walker’s consistently flirted with 30 long balls and 100 RBI each of the past three seasons, so if he’s truly rounding into shape, this price tag is far too low for his talents.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Juan Soto, New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, $5,000 – I can not remember the last time that Soto’s price tag was this far down. Obviously, the smart thing to do here is exploit the savings. It’s not even like Soto’s been bad, as the $700 million man enters Monday’s action ranking in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity (94.3) and the 93rd percentile in expected wOBA (.412). Breaking news: Juan Soto is awesome. Soto and the rest of the Mets will draw a decent matchup tonight, with Ryne Nelson ($6,700) making his first start of 2025. Throughout his career, Nelson’s always been better out of the bullpen. To wit, he sports 4.83 ERA as a starter and has surrendered 1.31 opponent home runs per nine.
Value
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, $3,900 – Reynolds’ price tag this season was as high as $5,200 on April 1, so getting him below $4,000 feels like a steal, even if he hasn’t been hitting up to his potential so far in 2025. In reality, Reynolds has just been a little unlucky, as he comes into tonight’s tilt with an 80th percentile expected slugging percentage (.509) and a 76th percentile barrel rate (13.3%). However, some good fortune might be on the way in the form of Miles Mikolas ($6,200), who has long had his struggles with LHBs. As such, in 39 career at-bats against the long-time Cardinal, Reynolds is hitting .359 with five extra-base hits and an .885 OPS.
Value
Gavin Lux, Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, $3,600 – Lux has been everything that the Reds could have hoped for when acquiring the utility man this offseason. In fact, the 27-year-old has been the team’s primary clean-up hitter against RHPs, which makes sense, given that Lux is slashing an impressive .352/.424/.500 within the split with a 154 wRC+. Tonight’s right-hander? AJ Smith-Shawver ($7,500), who possesses a 6.53 xERA and a ninth percentile opponent barrel rate (14.5%) through his first four outings of 2025. Yikes.
