The opening round of the NBA playoffs is in the books, with the race for the championship down to eight remaining teams. The Indiana Pacers kicked off the second round with a victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, and two new conference semifinal matchups begin tonight.
To start the night, the defending champion Boston Celtics host the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference. Then the matchups travel to Oklahoma City, where the Thunder have been waiting for their opponent after sweeping the Grizzlies in the opening round. The Denver Nuggets earned this opportunity by blowing out the Clippers in Game 7, but have just one day of rest following the grueling series bfore they now take on the Western Conference favorites.
There are plenty of opportunities to get involved in the action this evening. One of the unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Basketball!
This article will look at my top Pick6 plays for action on May 5th. You simply choose whether each set statistic will be more or less than the set number. With the stage set, here are my favorite picks for the pair of Monday night series-openers.
Jalen Brunson More Than 6.5 Assists
The Knicks made some significant roster changes this offseason to climb into the true contender category. Even with these upgrades, it is clear they will only go as far as Jalen Brunson will take them. The star guard lived up to his Clutch Player of the Year title in the opening round, hitting every big shot the team needed. Brunson will need to continue to shine in this series, but going up against Boston’s defense will be a tough task.
While the Pistons had a more than respectable defense in the opening round, the Celtics are on another level. They finished the regular season ranked second in opponent points allowed, third in opponent three-point percentage, second in opponent field goal percentage, and fourth in defensive rating. Across the four regular-season matchups with the Celtics, Brunson was limited to 26.8 points and 5.3 assists per game. Even with the upgraded roster, the Celtics will be willing to live and die with the other players beating them and will be making a conscious effort to get the ball out of his hands. Brunson is still a score-first player at heart, but is more than capable of filling the role as a traditional point guard.
Across the regular season, Brunson averaged 26.0 points and 7.3 assists per game, tallying more than 6.5 assists in 37 of the 65 games he played. The two-time All-Star tallied more than 6.5 assists in all six games of the opening round, averaging 8.2 assists per game. He is generating 12.5 potential assists per game and does an excellent job of leveraging his scoring to open up his playmaking options. Expect Boston to be intent on getting the ball out of Brunson’s hands and for the Knicks’ star to deliver as a playmaker with at least seven assists tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns More Than 1.5 Made Three-Pointers
One of the biggest beneficiaries of Brunson’s playmaking will be Karl-Anthony Towns. The prized offseason acquisition settled in nicely with this Knicks team, averaging 24.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists across the regular season. He shot 42.0% from beyond the three-point arc, averaging 2.0 made three-pointers per game. Through the opening playoff series, Towns averaged 19.7 points and 10.0 rebounds while shooting 48.0% from beyond the three-point arc. He shot 12-for-25 from the perimeter in the series and connected on more than 1.5 made three-pointers in three of the six games.
One key storyline of this series will be the battle from beyond the three-point arc. Boston launches shots from the perimeter at an all-time high rate, and trading two points for three points will be a losing battle from the Knicks’ perspective. Across the regular season, the Celtics launched an NBA-high 48.2 three-point attempts and connected at a 36.8% rate. No other team in the league attempted more than 42.4 per game (the Warriors), and New York ranked 27th in the league in three-point volume at 34.1 per game.
Towns will be the primary option for combating this, and New York has not done a good enough job of creating looks for him on the season overall. He shot an impressive 7-for-11 from beyond the three-point arc against the Celtics in the regular season and should see more attempts in the playoffs. Expect Towns to be ready to let it fly in this game and for New York to run more two-man actions with him compared to the high reliance on Brunson in isolation possessions that occurred in the opening round. He has knocked down more than 1.5 made three-pointers in 43 regular season games, so look for him to deliver on this total again tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis More Than 2.5 Made Three-Pointers
On the other side of the incoming three-point battle, expect Kristaps Porzingis to be ready to wipe the slate clean from a disappointing opening-round performance. The 7-foot-2 center was limited to 12.0 points and 5.8 rebounds while shooting just 35.2% from the field and 11.8% from beyond the three-point arc against the Magic. Porzingis was noticeably bothered by the physical and deep Orlando frontcourt, but this will not be the same against this Knicks team.
New York keeps their rotation short, and Boston will be making a clear effort to attack Karl-Anthony Towns, who will be the worst individual defender on the floor. They had success with this in the regular season, and this will only be magnified under the bright playoff lights. Porzingis has faced his former team seven times since joining the Celtics. He has shot 26-for-52 (50.0%) from beyond the three-point arc in these matchups. He made at least two three-pointers in each of these games, as many as eight in an individual game, and at least three three-pointers in five of these seven matchups.
Across the regular season, Porzingis averaged 19.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. He shot 48.3% from the floor and 41.2% from beyond the three-point arc. Brush off the poor opening performance as a bad matchup and expect a much better showing against the Knicks. New York struggled greatly last playoffs to limit Myles Turner, who also serves as a floor-spacing big man. Expect this to only be magnified with Towns on the floor and for Porzingis to help lead the charge from the perimeter. Expect his three-point ability to be a key part of the Celtics’ game plan and for Porzingis to deliver with more than 2.5 three-pointers in the series opener.
Nikola Jokic More Than 1.5 Made Three-Pointers
The Denver Nuggets deserve a ton of credit for their absolute dismantling of the Clippers in Game 7 to advance to the second round. As a reward, they now take on the Western Conference favorite Oklahoma City Thunder with just one off day since their previous victory. This is a difficult matchup even under the best of circumstances, and Denver will need to brush off their victory at a rapid rate. Oklahoma City was burned in last year’s playoffs by their lack of interior play. They combated this by bringing in Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency, and Chet Holmgren has taken another stride forward in his development this year.
There is no way to fully stop Nikola Jokic, but there will be a concentrated effort on limiting his impact. The combination of Holmgren and Hartenstein gives the Thunder as good of a chance as any with both players sure to be involved in the defensive game plan. One area where Jokic can combat this is by increasing his volume from the perimeter. The three-time MVP shot a career-best 41.7% from beyond the three-point arc this season on a career-high 4.7 three-point attempts per game.
Jokic connected on more than 1.5 three-pointers in 41 of the 70 regular-season games he played and in four of the seven games of the opening round. With tired legs sure to be a factor and the Thunder defending the paint well, Jokic’s willingness to shoot from the perimeter should only increase in this game. He shot as many as 10 three-point attempts in a regular-season matchup against the Thunder. Look for Jokic to lean on this area of his skillset tonight and connect with more than 1.5 made three-pointers in the first postseason matchup with this high-level interior defense on a significant rest advantage.
Isaiah Hartenstein More Than 8.5 Rebounds
On the other end of this big man battle is Isaiah Hartenstein. Oklahoma City brought him in as a postseason difference-maker, and Hartenstein has been a pretty seamless fit on this roster. Across the regular season, Hartenstein averaged 11.2 points and 10.7 rebounds in his 27.9 minutes per game. It is tough to fully judge based on numbers in the opening round due to the comfortable sweep the Thunder produced, but Hartenstein still pitched in 9.0 points and 8.8 rebounds in his 23.5 minutes per game.
Expect his role and production to grow in this series, with this matchup specifically being a reason the big man is in Oklahoma City. The Thunder will operate with Holmgren as the lone big man for stretches, but playing both big men together has had some impressive results. Hartenstein pulled in more than 8.5 rebounds in 42 of the 57 regular-season games he played and 18 across his pair of matchups with the Nuggets.
Look for Hartenstein to set the tone for the Thunder from a rebounding perspective and see more opportunity than was the case in the opening round. He still reached this total in two of the four opening-round games, even in a more limited role. Look for Hartenstein to impose himself on the interior tonight and pull in more than 8.5 rebounds with rest on his side tonight. This is a comfortable number based on Hartenstein’s level of production all year, and it would not be a shock if he surpasses it by a notable margin.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander More Than 10.5 Assists & Rebounds
The Thunder are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, but you cannot ignore Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the head of the snake. The likely MVP is coming off a stellar regular season in which he averaged an NBA-best 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game. Gilgeous-Alexander is a complete basketball player who helps set the tone defensively and leads the charge with the ball in his hands.
While he will surely have his monster scoring nights, look for him to impact the game as a playmaker and on the boards as these teams feel each other out in the series opener. Gilgeous-Alexander tallied more than 10.5 combined assists and rebounds in 45 of the 76 regular-season games he played. This includes two of the four matchups with the Nuggets. He recorded more than 10.5 combined assists and rebounds in three of the four opening round matchups, with him being limited to just over 23 minutes of action in the lone game he did not reach it.
Don’t be shocked if Denver employs a defensive game plan to attempt to force the ball out of Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands and force him to beat them as a playmaker. He is talented enough to execute on this and will utilize his 6-foot-6 frame to rebound the ball throughout. He carries the mentality you hope for in a star player. Gilgeous-Alexander is willing to do whatever the team needs, even if this means sacrificing as a scorer. Look for him to make his presence felt tonight as a playmaker and rebounder, and tally more than 10.5 assists and rebounds as he has in 60% of the games played this year.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
