After an absolutely brutal weekend for both these teams—the Mets had a double-header yesterday and the Diamondbacks have had a grueling schedule stretch—they face off against each other in total exhaustion. But someone’s gotta win! Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Mets and the Diamondbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets prediction, preview
The Mets are looking to bounce back from a tough stretch, and they’ve got the perfect setup to do so tonight against the Diamondbacks. Griffin Canning, with a stellar 2.61 ERA and a track record of dominance, takes the mound. He’s been lights out in his last five starts, giving up more than a run just once. His fastball has been particularly effective, with hitters batting just .160 against it. Canning is in the 72nd percentile for barrel percentage and the 66th percentile for whiff rate, meaning he’s able to avoid hard contact and generate swings and misses. That’s not the kind of pitching Arizona’s lineup, which ranks 25th in the league in runs allowed, can handle.
Despite the Diamondbacks’ offensive power—Corbin Carroll’s .575 slugging and Eugenio Suarez’s 10 home runs—their inconsistency against quality arms is a major concern. Canning’s xERA (46th percentile) indicates he’s been even better than his already impressive numbers suggest, and his ability to limit hard contact will be a huge factor against a team prone to striking out. Arizona’s top hitters, including Carroll, have been known to struggle against pitchers with high K rates like Canning (9.0 K/9).
Meanwhile, Ryne Nelson takes the hill for Arizona, sporting a 5.82 ERA across seven appearances this season. His walk rate is 3.7 BB/9, and he has a concerning 1.39 WHIP. His lack of control and short outings have exposed the D-backs’ weak bullpen, which ranks 20th in WHIP. Arizona’s bullpen has been particularly vulnerable after long games, and the Mets have thrived on the road, covering the spread in each of their last six games as road dogs.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
The Mets’ offense, led by Pete Alonso and his .344 average, is all damage, all the time. Alonso’s .656 slugging ranks second in MLB, and he’s connected for a home run in three of the Mets’ last four road games against the Diamondbacks. With a lineup that has a 5.2% walk rate (fifth) and has produced a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers like Nelson, they can exploit his mistakes.
While Arizona has been good at home, their pitching inconsistency and the Mets’ solid performance on the road make New York the safer bet. The Mets have dominated at Chase Field, going 6-1 in their last seven trips here, and their starting pitching gives them a clear advantage tonight.
The Diamondbacks may have a potent offense, but they won’t be able to keep up with Canning’s sharp control and New York’s depth. Canning’s 2.87 ERA and 3.15 FIP suggest he’s not just getting lucky; he’s earned his numbers, and he’ll shut down Arizona’s free-swinging attack.
Both teams will be tired after their brutal weekend schedules. Mets have the better pitcher, here.
Best bet: Mets (+100) at Diamondbacks
Mets bounce back—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
