The second round of the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs gets rolling on Monday night with an international clash between the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs. These teams have only met in the playoffs once before, a 2023 series in which the Panthers emerged victorious in five games.
This time around, Florida enters on the heels of a dominant gentleman’s sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning. They look like clear Stanley Cup favorites, but can Toronto give them some trouble and pull off an upset in this series?
Here’s a detailed look at Panthers vs. Maple Leafs, including a series prediction and top pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs series preview
Florida Panthers
Prior to the opening round, it looked like the Panthers were in for a grueling series against the NHL’s best offense. In the end, the opposite was true — after just five games, the Ice Cats proved they’re among the deepest teams in hockey and stepped right back into peak form with a fully-healthy lineup.
Florida’s defense stifled a tough opponent to the tune of just 12 goals in five games, or an average of 2.40 per contest. While goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky’s save percentage this postseason isn’t spectacular at .901, he boasts the third-best goals-against average of any netminder at 2.21. If the Lightning couldn’t score last round, Toronto is certainly in for a tough time now.
The Ice Cats’ offense stole the show in round one, though. They scored 19 goals in five games, which is especially impressive since Florida made Andrei Vasilevskiy look silly between the posts. The interesting part is that Florida’s scoring was truly a team effort. Sam Reinhart paces the squad with six points, while Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk each scored five in the first round. No Panther ranks inside the top-20 playoff point scorers thus far — a testament to the team’s cohesiveness and depth, especially since they didn’t struggle much in their opening series.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Meanwhile, Toronto downed the Ottawa Senators in six games to conclude their opening-round series. While it was probably a bit closer than the Leafs would have preferred, they still took care of business and survived the playoff collapse allegations… for now, at least.
No Toronto player scored more than three goals over their series, but William Nylander scored a team-high nine points. Mitch Marner follows closely behind with eight this postseason, while Auston Matthews’ seven ranks him third on the team. With 19 goals in six games, the Maple Leafs are netting over three per game, but it’s a bit concerning they fall 13th among playoff teams with just over 25 shots per contest thus far. They’ll need far more offensive pressure to succeed against this Panthers squad.
However, Toronto’s defense looked good through the first round with just 16 goals allowed for an average of 2.67 per game. Goalie Anthony Stolarz’s numbers are actually identical to Bobrovsky’s at at .901 SV% and a 2.21 GAA, though he did play one more game than the Panthers’ goaltender. Florida is a much more potent offense than the Senators, though, so whether Stolarz can keep this up remains unknown.
Keys to the Series
Toronto has a clear advantage in the face-off game here. The Maple Leafs rank first among all playoff teams with a 56.6% face-off win percentage, a full four percentage points higher than the next-closest squad. Compare that to the Panthers, who rank ninth in FOW% at 49.3%. If the Leafs can keep this up, these extra possessions could be the difference-maker, especially against a Panthers team that loves to slow down the pace of play.
Special teams is always worth mentioning. The Maple Leafs saw 17 power play opportunities in the first round, scoring on six of those chances. The Panthers saw 16 power play chances and came out with a goal on four of them. One would think Toronto has the advantage here, but they actually allowed not one, but two shorthanded goals over that sample. There’s no excuse for that whatsoever. On the penalty kill, the Panthers looked dominant against a high-powered Lightning squad, too, allowing just two goals in 18 chances.
On a related note, Florida’s collection of special teams talent probably outweighs that of Toronto. They’re still figuring out their power play units as they’ve only played a handful of games since adding both Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad back to the lineup after injury and suspension, respectively (and Ekblad will miss Game 1 of this series). Figuring out where Brad Marchand fits into the power play lines alongside the rest of Florida’s now-healthy star power will only get easier with each passing game.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs series prediction, pick
As the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs opens on Tuesday night, DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Panthers as -170 favorites to win this series. They’re the heaviest favorite in the series winner market across the four remaining matchups. As for the Maple Leafs, they hold +145 odds of upsetting Florida and advancing to the next round.
The betting public fully backs the Panthers, too. As things stand on DraftKings Sportsbook, 88% of the total handle and 81% of total bets placed are on Florida to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Anything can happen once playoff hockey rolls around, but it’s pretty easy to see why Florida holds such strong odds of taking this series. Their top lines are chock-full of talent, but they’re probably the deepest remaining team in the postseason field aside from maybe the Dallas Stars. The Panthers play at their own pace and love to grind games out — by making things ugly, they wear opponents out over the course of a series and make it very difficult to pick against them in a seven-game format.
The Maple Leafs are a fun team, but it looks as though the end of the road has arrived. The Panthers are the reigning Stanley Cup champions for a reason, and they’re probably even better than last year’s team thanks to the additions of Marchand and Seth Jones. It’s tough to see any outcome besides a Florida win, they’re simply inevitable.
