There is no better phrase in sports than a Game 7, and we have another in store tonight. It is a fair bet to believe tonight’s win-or-go-home battle will be a more equal fight than last night’s blowout by the Nuggets over the Clippers.
This series has lived up to the hype in this intriguing battle of eras. Steph Curry and company are looking for another deep playoff run in an attempt to add to their four championships and with Jimmy Butler now on their side. But the Rockets have built out their roster the right way and flipped from a rebuilding roster into a win-now contender. The youthful squad is not afraid of the moment and made a massive statement with their 95-85 Game 6 win, with the score not quite indicative of how commanding the win was. Houston has climbed out of the 3-1 series hole and will be looking to be the 14th team in NBA history to come back and win a series after falling into this deficit.
The Houston Rockets enter as narrow 2.5-point favorites and -135 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Golden State holds +114 odds of getting the outright victory, and the over/under for the matchup is set at 205.5.
The Case for the Rockets:
There is no denying that Golden State has the superior top-end talent. But it has also become increasingly clear that the Houston Rockets are the better overall team and know exactly who they are as a basketball team in a way you can’t quite say about this iteration of this Warriors team.
With Golden State preferring to play small-ball with Draymond Green at center, Houston has countered this by leaning on their size and physicality, which has shifted the series entirely. Steven Adams clocked a season-high 31:02 of game time in the Game 6 victory, sharing the floor with Alperen Sengun and dominating the glass. The Rockets are +53 when Adams is on the floor and -39 without him. Houston is producing a 117.2 offensive rating, a 85 defensive rating, and a +32.2 net rating in the minutes that Adams and Sengun have shared the floor.
During these same opportunities, the Rockets are pulling in 48.2% of their own misses. The size and physicality have been notable, and they have limited Steph Curry to just a 45.7% effective field goal percentage and Jimmy Butler to a 36.1% effective field goal percentage in these minutes. There does not look to be a clear counter to this lineup on the Warriors’ roster, with the physicality Houston has brought only looking to have worn down the Warriors as the season has progressed. Expect the Rockets to lean on this again tonight.
Houston has also managed to overcome disappointing and inconsistent outputs from Jalen Green. They will have the home crowd behind them, and home teams are 113-39 in Game 7’s in NBA history. While this is always on the table when facing Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler, it will take a heroic individual performance to take down this Rockets team.
The Case for the Warriors:
You will not find many teams with as much playoff experience as this Golden State roster. The four championship rings held by Steph Curry and Draymond Green speak for themselves, while “Playoff Jimmy” Butler has been in effect this series as well.
With this said, basketball is a team sport for a reason. Golden State has not gotten enough production from its supporting cast. Draymond Green’s antics have outweighed his impact for the bulk of this series, and the Warriors have shot just 34.7% from beyond the three-point arc in this series. This is below the 36.4% rate they shot in the regular season and ranks 10th among playoff teams as well as second-to-last among the remaining teams.
Steve Kerr has elected to keep Jonathan Kuminga on the bench for four of the six games in this series. While Kuminga is far from a perfect basketball player, he is one of the few on the Warriors roster with a chance to match Houston’s high level of size and physicality. Kerr mentioned everything is on the table to reporters in his press conference following the Game 6 loss, but it will take more of an adjustment than just this to get their desired results.
With all this said, no one has gotten rich betting against Steph Curry. The Warriors star has averaged 32.6 points and 7.0 assists per game in his five Game 7 appearances, going 3-2 in these. Curry is one of two players to have ever scored 50+ points in a Game 7 matchup and can still take over a game by himself when he gets hot. He is one of the few players capable of carrying a team to a victory in this type of setting and will look to turn back the clock tonight. Most of Houston’s core has lacked any sort of playoff experience, and the youth could come into play if this game hangs in the balance.
The Pick: Rockets ML (-135)
Steph Curry still strikes fear into my heart, but the Rockets are the better team and will have the home crowd behind them tonight. Houston unlocked something with their duo big man lineup, and there is no real counter on the Warriors’ roster to combat this size differential.
Expect this to be the story of tonight’s game, with the Rockets’ size and physicality setting the tone. It was a grown-up victory in Game 6 on the road by this young Rockets team that should give them all the momentum and confidence they need. Golden State attempted to muck things up on the defensive end by leaning on their zone defense frequently in Game 6. But Alperen Sengun artfully picked them apart in the halfcourt and has proven ready for the challenge as a lead decision-maker in a playoff setting.
Golden State will not roll over the way they did in the past two games, but they have been unable to generate the game-changing wave of offense against this Rockets defense the way they have had so much success with in years past. I lean toward the under of 205.5 in this game with my expectation that Houston’s defense is the story tonight. The 2.5-point spread doesn’t fully scare me away, but given the high-stakes environment and the juice being just -135, I am rolling with the moneyline tonight.
