Prepare for a wild ride at Texas Motor Speedway, where bold strategies and high-speed chaos make picking the best NASCAR bets a thrilling challenge! As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Wurth 400 at Texas.
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Race Winner—Wurth 400
Kyle Larson (+350)
On Sunday, two strategies reign: Domination or Deviation. The first is simple; the second will unfold in the upcoming pick. Kyle Larson dominates. He wins everywhere, in everything. He even wins at life. His biopic would be a snooze—he wins too much. Where’s the drama? This weekend has been no different. Larson won the 2025 Xfinity Series race and blazed through Cup Series practice on Saturday. His times are at the top, and he’s strategically testing slower grooves to find passing lanes for Sunday.
Chris Buescher (+2500)
It’s time to deviate because Texas is unpredictable. The 2024 Texas race saw 16 cautions. It’s a blistering one-groove track—if a driver steps out of line, they’ll spin. Once the line forms, passing becomes rare. Restarts are where passes happen, but they often lead to more carnage. When drivers aren’t wrecking, teams are gambling. Two-tire strategies and long runs are in play. Chase Elliott surged from traffic to win the 2024 Texas race by running long and catching a caution.
Everyone knows RFK loves bold strategies. Keselowski’s RFK team thrives on unconventional calls. This pick is unconventional: Texan Chris Buescher hasn’t finished better than 14th in his last eight Texas races on this intermediate track. This could be his year. Buescher started strong, with the No. 17 RFK Ford showing short-run speed and minimal fall-off. A few practice stops were needed for setup tweaks. Buescher is poised to run in the top 10 and capitalize on Texas’ chaos. This isn’t a 100-lap leader—it’s a last-lap winner.
