Sunday’s game between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors will be the 152nd Game 7 in NBA history. Home teams are 112-39 (.742) in Game 7s. Houston is at home for this one and is also trying to become the 14th team to come back from a 3-1 deficit.
The Rockets enter this Game 7 matchup as 2.5-point favorites with -135 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Warriors hold +114 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 205.5 for this matchup.
With the stage set, here is my favorite Jabari Smith Jr. prop bet ahead of Game 7.
Best Jabari Smith Jr. Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Smith’s props are listed at over/under 6.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 0.5 made three-pointers and 11.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Jabari Smith Jr. Under 3.5 Rebounds (+105)
In the first three games of this series, Smith Jr. played 26, 24 and 26 minutes. He grabbed six, five and five rebounds in those games.
Since then, the playing time has slowly dissipated down to 23, 15 and 19 minutes. As a result, he’s pulled down two, two and three rebounds.
The big adjustment that the Rockets have employed is playing Steven Adams more, for the double-big lineup alongside Alperen Sengun. After playing fewer than 20 minutes in each of the first three games, Adams has received 27, 17 and 31 minutes.
Adams has been setting bone-crushing picks on the perimeter, cleaning the glass and being a deterrent in the paint on defense. There is a chance that he gets played off the floor as Steve Kerr is bound to make some adjustments.
And therein lies the issue for Smith Jr., especially in the rebounding department.
Adams had an 18.7% rebounding rate during the regular season, good for 12th in the NBA. Sengun was at 15.3%. Smith was at 10.7%, but that was while averaging 30.1 minutes per game.
It was difficult finding player prop bets at plus-money that I felt good about, but the decreased playing time to go along with the rebounding prowess of both Sengun and Adams has me liking the under 3.5 rebounds for Smith Jr.
Now, just prepare yourself for the 29-minute, 10-rebound, 20-point game by Jabari!
