The Warriors and Rockets will face off in a win-or-go home Game 7 on Sunday in Houston. The winner of this game will advance to the Western Conference Semifinals and face the Timberwolves.
Let’s explore how the public is betting Game 7 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
Coming off the Game 6 loss at home, many bettors still believe in the Warriors, with 64% of the handle and 61% of the bets on the moneyline backing Golden State at +114 for Game 7. For the spread, 58% of the handle is on the Rockets -2.5, but the amount of bets is nearly split, with 54% of the bets on the Warriors +2.5.
What this tells us is that the majority of people and big bettors are on the Warriors, and those bettors prefer to attack them with plus money odds on the moneyline rather than taking the easier route with them at +2.5. While on the road, the Warriors are the far more experienced team than the Rockets and Golden State is 26-10 with Jimmy Butler available since trading for the forward in February, so the Warriors being the more popular choice for this Game 7 isn’t surprising.
As for the total, 92% of the handle and 88% of the bets are on over 205.5 points, which is result of the last three games of this series all going over this number for an average of 228 PPG. While this is a Game 7 featuring two great defenses, 205.5 points is a very low total for today’s NBA and tailing the public on this over is the right move.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top-five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Stephen Curry 30+ Points (+140)
- Stephen Curry 40+ Points (+850)
- Stephen Curry 35+ Points (+360)
- Stephen Curry O 4.5 Made Three Pointers (-140)
- Stephen Curry 25+ Points (-195)
Yes, you read that right, each of the top-five most bet player props for this Game 7 belong to Curry. Four of these prop bets are on the sharpshooter as a scorer, with Curry for 30+ points at +140 being the most popular. Through the first six games of this series with the Rockets, Curry is averaging 24.3 PPG and he has scored 25+ points three times, including two efforts of over 30 points. Curry is leading the Warriors with a 26.9% usage rate in this series and he has been great in Game 7s in the past, averaging 32.6 PPG (five games).
Curry went off for 50 points when the Warriors beat the Kings in Game 7 of the first round two years ago and of his five starts in Game 7s, Curry has scored 25+ four times and 30+ three times. While Curry for 35+ or 40+ points are longshot bets, attacking the four-time NBA champion for 30+ points at +140 has a ton of merit and Curry for 25+ points at -190 is very strong if looking for a safe wager.
Jammed between all these Curry scoring props is the veteran for over 4.5 made three pointers at -140, which is a great option if you believe Curry is going to have another vintage performance in Sunday’s Game 7. Curry knocked down six three pointers in Friday’s Game 6 and he has hit 3+ three pointers in three of these six games against Houston this round. In his five starts in a Game 7, Curry is averaging 5.6 made three pointers per game and he has hit at least seven three pointers in three of these five tilts.
