The Yankees host the Rays for a three-game set beginning on Saturday. This will be the second time these teams have met, with a four-game series in Tampa Bay played in mid-April. New York took three-of-four games.
RHP Zack Littell takes the mound for the Rays while RHP Clarke Schmidt gets the nod for the Yankees.
The Yankees are -180 ML favorites at home, and the over/under is set at 9.5 runs on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are the top bets for Saturday’s game between the Rays and Yankees.
Best Yankees vs. Rays Player Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Trent Grisham 1+ Home Run (+260)
The short porch of Yankees stadium has suited Grisham well. In 209 plate appearances last season, he hit nine home runs and posted a .196 ISO. The batting average was sub-.200, but the BABIP was only .217.
In 81 plate appearances this season, he’s already hit eight home runs with a robust .347 ISO. The BABIP is .277 and Grisham is slashing .292/.370/.639, a career high. Grisham will regress at some point, but that doesn’t mean the regression fairies will sprinkle their dust right away.
Saturday’s matchup is a good one, as Zack Littell has struggled, allowing eight home runs in 34 innings. The FIP is 5.53. The home run total is boosted by a start against the Angels in which he allowed four, and he’s allowed only two and three earned runs in the last two starts totaling 11 innings. That said, he’s still not striking anyone out and the FIP has routinely been much higher than the ERA.
Grisham has been batting leadoff recently and will likely get the top spot once again.
Zack Littell Over 6 Hits Allowed (+100)
New York strikes out at the fourth-highest rate, but its team batting average of .267 is tops in MLB.
Littell has a 5.82 K/9 on the season with a paltry 8.6% swinging strike rate. After getting blasted in two of the first three starts, Littell has pitched six, six and five innings.
I don’t see a middle for Littell in this one. He is either going to get blown up early or go six innings. In either scenario, he’s going to give up a ton of hits. The only question is if the Yankees are able to score on those hits.
Aaron Judge 2+ Hits (+175)
I just went over how Littell is having difficulty making opposing batters swing and miss. Now he gets the privilege of facing Judge, who is slashing a ridiculous .427/.521/.761 with a .333 ISO. The .506 BABIP shows that he’s been very, very lucky, but I don’t think Littell is going to be the one to start the regression.
In addition, the Rays bullpen is 20th in K/9, so even if Littell gets knocked out early, Judge could still have success. In 16 at-bats against Rays pitching this season, Judge has racked up five hits. He has not faced Littell yet.
