It’s been an odd stretch for the Rays. Frankly, it’s been a odd season, as the team continues to play its home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field — the Spring Training domicile of the Yankees.
After winning five straight road games against very good NL West opponents to get the team back to .500, Tampa proceeded to get swept at home by the Royals, dropping itself back down to 14-17. Now, the team will have to travel to the Bronx to take on the AL East leading New York Yankees, who happen to own the American League’s top run differential (+52). Sounds like fun, right?
Can the Rays get back on track on Friday? Let’s break down this evening’s matchup with odds and lines provided by the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Yankees prediction, preview
The most important element of this game is the starting pitching matchup. Max Fried will take the mound for his seventh start in Yankee pinstripes, looking to continue his dominant run of recent success. In 37.2 innings of work in 2025, Fried has allowed only five earned runs, translating into a pristine 1.19 ERA. The lefty’s ERA estimators are not nearly as microscopic, but the veteran is simply doing what he’s always done: Not give up walks or home runs. To wit, Fried’s opponent HR/9 of 0.48 is the 12th-lowest qualified mark in MLB. Meanwhile, his 5.7% walk rate ranks in the 78th percentile. You have to earn everything you get against the 31-year-old.
However, the most crucial aspect of this specific matchup might be Fried’s handedness. The Rays have always utilized platoons at an elite level, but the team just isn’t getting the production it needs from its RHBs so far this season. While Tampa owns a 116 wRC+ against RHPs in 2025, its only slashing .197/.280/.294 with a 72 wRC+ versus LHPs. That includes a modest .097 ISO within the split — the third-lowest mark in MLB.
So, if Rays can’t score tonight, they’ll need Ryan Pepiot to try and keep things close on the mound. That’ll be easier said than done. While Pepiot did throw six strong innings in his last outing against the Padres, the right-hander sports a 5.09 ERA and a 6.06 FIP in his last four starts overall. The main issue? Surrendering seven long balls in just 23.0 innings. Pepiot has especially struggled at Steinbrenner Field in 2025, conceding 2.57 home runs per nine at home. Well, I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is the Rays are on the road tonight. The bad news is that Yankee Stadium has the exact same dimensions as the field of Pepiot’s nightmares. Tough break.
Rays vs. Yankees pick, best bet
The Yankees have a massive edge in this contest and that’s reflected on the moneyline, as the team is a -250 favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook. You’ll have to find another way to back the team that leads MLB in home runs (53), ISO (.211) and wRC+ (137). Fortunately, I have some options.
Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (-115)
Ryan Pepiot is having home runs issues. This is the worst possible matchup for that flaw.
Strong Lean: Under 8.5 (-110)
The Yankees’ lineup is dangerous, but expect the Rays to have trouble scoring at all against Fried.
