The fast pace of the opening round of the NBA playoffs is slowing down, with tickets beginning to be punched to advance. This will be on the line in the Game 6 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets as the series returns to the Bay Area.
Golden State took a commanding 3-1 series lead, but the youthful Houston squad proved not ready to roll over, staying alive with a 131-116 victory in Game 5. Steve Kerr waived the white flag by pulling the starters with 5:50 remaining in the third quarter. With an aging and experienced squad, Kerr clearly showed belief that they can get the job done back in front of their home crowd and will have the chance to do so tonight.
The Warriors enter this potential closeout matchup as five-point favorites and -218 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rockets hold +180 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 207 for this matchup.
The Rockets compete to keep their season alive while the Warriors look to deliver the knockout punch. Here are my favorite player props for the Game 5 matchup.
Jalen Green Under 15.5 Points (-105)
There may not be another player in the NBA with a wider variance for when he is at his best and when he is at his worst than Jalen Green. Both sides of this have been on display during the series. The former second-overall pick exploded for 38 points and six assists in Game 2, looking like the best player on the floor. However, he has also been held under 15.5 points in the other four games, including not cracking 10 points in three of these.
Even more concerning, Green’s level of opportunity has been scaled back. After logging 31, 35 and 39 minutes in the opening three games of the series, he has logged 28 and 25 minutes in the past two games. Green attempted just eight field goals in each of these games, combining for 19 total points on 6-for-16 from the field. Across the regular season, he averaged 21.0 points per game, but the increased playoff intensity has been bothersome for the 23-year-old, and these are struggles he must continue going through as he grows into the player he is capable of being.
Heading into tonight, expect Golden State to maintain a similar outlook of ensuring Green doesn’t get going early. There is a case to be made for both how difficult the matchup is or Houston’s loss of trust in Green being a greater concern, but both are valid. When including the regular season, Green has been held under 15.5 points in eight of the 10 matchups with Golden State this year. Don’t expect this to change in this fateful Game 6, where it is sure to be a high-intensity contest with an NBA Finals-like crowd. Expect the moment to continue feeling a bit too large for the Rockets guard and for Green to be held to under 15.5 points once again. The team has acknowledged they need to rely on other sources for offense and expect this to continue to be the case tonight.
Jimmy Butler Over 10.5 Rebounds, & Assists (-105)
For all the baggage that comes with him, it is impossible not to acknowledge the impact Jimmy Butler has had on this Warriors team. The season outlook changed completely following the trade with the Warriors, closing the regular season with a 23-7 record and looking the part of a contender. The metrics back this up, and Butler has only raised his game in the playoffs.
The former Heat star suffered a glute injury in Game 2 and was forced to miss the third matchup of the series. He returned Game 4 to add 27 points, six assists and five rebounds. He also added seven combined rebounds and assists in the previous game despite being limited to 25 minutes of action and being pulled with this Game 6 matchup in mind. Butler is plenty capable as a scorer, with his points prop set at 22.5 this evening.
But the Warriors are not short on scoring options, especially with Buddy Hield and Brandin Podziemski showing life. The greater concern throughout the series has been the rebounding battle. Houston has a size advantage and attacks the glass relentlessly. They will need to generate additional possessions to get their desired outcome, and expect Butler to be focused on limiting this. The over 5.5 rebounds is appealing to me, but Butler also plays a big role in the flow of the offense, with the previous game being the first matchup he has started and finished without six assists since April 8. Look for Butler to impose himself tonight and tally over 10.5 combined assists and rebounds.
Buddy Hield Over 2.5 Made Three-Point Field Goals (+124)
All eyes are set to be on Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green from the Warriors’ perspective in this game. This is exactly why Buddy Hield holds value for knocking down three three-pointers tonight. Hield has shown the defensive buy-in during this series that he has lacked throughout his career, which has expanded his opportunity for minutes on the floor. He played 29 and 30 minutes in each of the victories at home for Golden State, shooting 8-for-20 combined from beyond the three-point arc in these matchups.
It was also this exact time last year when Hield came alive for the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 6. On the other side of this elimination outlook, Hield provided an offensive spark, exploding for 20 points on six made three-pointers after being out of the rotation completely. There is more confidence in him and in this role on the Warriors.
With both Curry and Butler battling through some injury issues, don’t be surprised if Hield sees more opportunities for perimeter shots. He is a 39.7% three-point shooter on 7.5 perimeter shots per game throughout his career and he made over 2.5 three-pointers in 36 games in the regular season. Look for him to benefit from the continued defensive attention spent on Curry and be ready to knock down a few three-pointers tonight.
