The Rockets staved off elimination with a dominant 131-116 win over Golden State on Wednesday. Now, Houston will attempt to send this first round series back to Texas with a Game 6 victory. That’s easier said than done on the road against Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Let’s take a closer look at who the betting public is backing ahead of this crucial NBA playoffs showdown.
The Warriors enter tonight’s contest as 5.5-point favorites over the Rockets, with the over/under set at 208 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
The public is all over the Warriors, with 84% of the handle and 78% of all bets expecting this series to end tonight. In theory, it makes sense; this is a must-win game for a young, untested Rockets squad. In comparison, Golden State is loaded with experienced veterans who have been in this situation before. Since the 2021-22 season, the Dubs are 17-3 at home during the playoffs.
It’s a different story when looking at the spread, where most of the numbers are fairly even. These squads have garnered a 50/50 split of the handle, while the Warriors have earned 57% of all bets. All but one contest in this series, Game 4, has been determined by ten or more points.
A whopping 90% of the handle and 85% of all bets are leaning towards the over. Three of five games in this series have failed to reach 208 points. However, the two teams combined for at least 215 points in Games 4 and 5. This season, the Rockets ranked 16th (113.7) and the Warriors were 18th (113.3) in points per game.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the five player props in tonight’s matchup receiving the most bets:
- Brandin Podziemski 6+ three-pointers made (+1300)
- Jalen Green under 15.5 points (-125)
- Brandin Podziemski under 5.5 rebounds (-140)
- Alperen Sengun over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-105)
- Stephen Curry 25+ points (-145)
In a matchup littered with star power, seeing Brandin Podziemski in the most-bet player prop is surprising. The second-year guard isn’t a slouch by any means, serving as a starter in the second half of the season. However, it’s been a mediocre postseason for Podz, who has averaged 11.6 points on 38.5% shooting. His only remarkable outing came in Game 4, a 26-point showing in which the guard shot 6-of-11 from three-point range. Plenty of bettors are hoping for a repeat performance tonight. On the flip side, several wagers are fading the 22-year-old as a rebounder. He’s snagged more than five boards only once during his last five contests.
For the Rockets, getting Jalen Green back on track is a priority. Other than a 38-point evening in Game 2, the guard has failed to score more than 11 points in any of his appearances this series. At this point, Green’s poor play could keep him on the court for only 25 minutes. If that occurs, there’s a high chance he’s unable to reach 16 points.
Even if Houston’s leading scorer struggles, Alperen Sengun is capable of carrying his team. The do-it-all center has been terrific in his first career postseason, averaging 20.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game. However, he’s reached 16 assists + rebounds only twice during this series. A stingy Warriors defense, led by Draymond Green, will make a concerted effort to slow down the young All-Star.
To round out the list, we have none other than Steph Curry. The superstar has struggled recently, recording a combined 30 points on 40.0% shooting over his last two games. Still, knowing the two-time MVP, it’s only a matter of time until he gets back into a groove. Playing at home, bettors are expecting a vintage performance from the future Hall of Famer on Friday.
