Six of the eight tickets have been punched to advance to the second-round of the NBA playoffs, with the pace of games slowing down. Another spot in the second-round is at stake tonight as the Warriors vs. Rockets series heads back to Golden State for Game 6. Alperen Sengun and company have started their climb back from the 3-1 hole they fell into by producing a 131-116 victory in Game 5 to keep their season alive.
Steve Kerr and the Warriors seemed content with the series returning to Golden State after the Rockets got out to a commanding lead on Wednesday. All of the Warriors’ starters were pulled from the game with 5:50 remaining in the third quarter. The experienced squad will now prepare to defend their home court, where they have won two games already this series.
The Warriors enter this potential closeout matchup as 5.5-point favorites and -238 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rockets hold +195 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 208 for this matchup.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Sengun prop bets ahead of Game 6.
Best Alperen Sengun Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Sengun’s props are listed at over/under 21.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 0.5 made three-pointers and 36.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 Rebounds (-135)
The rebounding battle continues to be a huge factor in this series, as expected when it started. Houston led the NBA in total rebounds and offensive rebounds across the regular season, with size being a concern for this Warriors team. Houston has had success winning these battles, but it has not translated to the series outlook as hoped. Alperen Sengun has been a huge part of this effort, averaging 20.8 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists across the opening five games of this series.
Sengun has pulled in as many as 16 rebounds in a game this series and tallied over 10.5 boards in two of the past three matchups. No player in Golden State’s regular rotation can match his 6-foot-11, 245-pound frame. The Warriors have had to attack the boards with a team-oriented approach to combat this. The rebounding discrepancy has only been magnified when Steven Adams has shared the floor with Sengun. But when looking at the biggest concerns on this Rockets’ team, they almost exclusively fall on the offensive end.
Don’t be surprised if Houston elects to sacrifice what Adams brings as a rebounding presence to get more offense on the floor. Expect this to put more responsibility on Sengun’s plate as a rebounder and for the big man to continue delivering. The power balance of this Rockets’ team has shifted onto Sengun’s shoulders the more the series has progressed, and he has looked ready for the challenge. If the Rockets are to have any chance, they will need a strong rebounding effort, and this starts with the big man.
Alperen Sengun to Record 7+ Assists (+340)
With variable and underwhelming outputs from plenty of Houston’s youthful roster (*cough* Jalen Green), Sengun has been asked to scale up his offensive role and has delivered. He is averaging 5.2 assists in the series, but has tallied seven or more assists in two of the five matchups. Sengun dropped nine dimes in the previous game and also tallied seven or more assists in 15 regular season games.
The Warriors’ lack of size has been obvious in this series, and Houston has granted Sengun the freedom to attack as he sees fit. This has led to a pair of 25+ point scoring games, including as many as 31. Sengun has earned his stripes in this series, while concerns have increased regarding some of the surrounding young talent. Golden State has allowed Houston to clear out space and for Sengun to attack in one-on-one opportunities with little resistance. Expect this to be a bit more difficult tonight with a larger focus on the Warriors forcing the other players to beat them. Sengun has had great success attacking from the post, but is smart enough to pick the Warriors apart if and when they send double teams his way.
While he is not quite Nikola Jokic, Houston’s offense is impressive when Sengun serves as the hub with players cutting around him. Sengun is a high-IQ player who can pick out just about any pass and execute. His standard assist prop is listed at 4.5 with the odds set at -115 in both directions. While I obviously like this, as well, this is a game where I believe it is worth taking a big swing for 7+ assists at +340 odds. Sengun has proven a lot in this series, and expect him to leave it all on the floor in Game 6 with a favorable matchup in mind.
