After Thursday night, one thing is for certain: Jalen Brunson is built for the postseason. The NBA’s Clutch Player of the Year dominated Game 6 against the Pistons, leading New York with 40 points. To cap it off, the guard ended Detroit’s season on a go-ahead three-pointer with seconds remaining.
The Knicks will be rewarded for their series win with a best-of-seven set against the defending champion Celtics. It was a less stressful first round for Boston, who dominated the Magic en route to a gentleman’s sweep. Leading the charge was Jayson Tatum, one of the association’s most prolific scorers. In Game 5’s blowout 120-89 victory, the forward put up 35 points on 10-of-16 shooting.
Which one of these superstars will drop the most buckets in round two of the NBA playoffs? Let’s break down Jalen Brunson and Jayson Tatum’s odds as series points leader on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The case for Jalen Brunson
Brunson, despite his affinity for drawing fouls, is one of the sport’s most skilled players on offense. The guard can dazzle with an array of spin moves, masterful footwork, and pinpoint passes. However, he’s also an exceptional shooter, knocking down 38.3% of his three-point attempts this season. Since joining the Knicks in 2022, the two-time All-Star has averaged 26.4 points on 48.5% shooting from the field.
As nice as his regular season numbers look, the NBA playoffs bring out the best in Brunson. Over his last 30 postseason appearances, he’s posted 30.5 points on 45.2% shooting. During that time, only Devin Booker (32.1 PPG) has scored more, albeit in just 15 games.
New York’s leading man had his hands full in round one. Elite perimeter defender Ausar Thompson and the Pistons did their best to try and harass Brunson. In a grueling six-game series, nothing came easy for either side. Still, JB managed to deliver 30 points in all but one outing, Game 5’s 16-point clunker. The Celtics, for all their defensive prowess, are unlikely to play with Detroit’s level of physicality. In theory, that should allow the Knicks more room to operate on offense.
Brunson’s situation is the perfect mix of talent and opportunity. On top of being a bonafide superstar, he’s also the go-to guy when things get tough. Since joining the Knicks, Brunson has commanded a whopping postseason usage rate of 32.9%. Even if that declines slightly vs. the Celtics, he’s still going to command plenty of touches.
The case for Jayson Tatum
On a Celtics roster with plenty of mouths to feed, Jayson Tatum continues to put up jaw-dropping statistics. This season, the 27-year-old averaged 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists over 72 appearances. Impressively, the forward recorded those numbers on efficient 45/34/81 shooting splits. At 6’8″, Tatum has a claim as the most difficult defensive assignment in all of basketball.
Boston’s face of the franchise isn’t a playoff riser to the same degree as Brunson. However, that’s also a result of circumstance. Playing on phenomenal rosters for most of his career, Tatum hasn’t needed to take over on offense very often. Instead, he’s more than comfortable waiting for the perfect shot rather than forcing a contested jumper. With that being said, JT did produce 31.3 points in four games against a stingy Magic defense. He’ll look to carry over that success into round two, which begins on Monday.
Since 2020, Tatum leads the NBA with 2,348 playoff points; second on the list is Nikola Jokic with 2,013. While Brunson’s career postseason usage rate is impressive, JT isn’t far behind at 28.1%. He’s also had notable success in this spot, scoring 30.5 points over his last ten outings vs. the Knicks. That includes three different 30+ point performances against New York this season.
Jalen Brunson vs. Jayson Tatum prediction
At the end of the day, the biggest winners in this Eastern Conference matchup are basketball fans. Getting to see two of the game’s elite scorers battling it out shouldn’t be taken for granted. When it comes to determining whether Brunson or Tatum will finish as leading scorer, external factors will play a major role. The Celtics enter this series as massive favorites (-800), and for good reason; they won all four meetings with the Knicks this season.
I’d expect New York to steal a game or two, but taking down this roster is asking a lot. When it comes to supporting casts, the Celtics have a much deeper bench and more reliable secondary scoring options. That’s not to say the Knicks lack talent on offense, but the team often defaults to ‘give Brunson the ball’ in crunch time. Boston’s abundance of shooting makes it easy for Tatum to act as a distributor.
It might be a bad sign for the Celtics if Tatum finishes as the leading scorer in this series. Boston is at its best when everyone is getting the ball. Any deviation from that championship-winning formula would likely favor New York. In contrast, the Knicks have issues scheming up easy offense, leaving their point guard to play iso-ball. In what should be an epic duel between two of the NBA’s best, I’m backing Brunson.
