In the 2016 NBA Finals, the Golden State Warriors blew a 3-1 lead. Surely everyone knows about it, though, given that it was the most famous collapse in league history.
The fact that the Warriors dropped Game 5 on the road to the Houston Rockets on Wednesday probably doesn’t have them particularly concerned about another late-series choke. That calculus may change tonight if Houston can march into the Chase Center and force a Game 7.
Golden State is a five-point favorite (-218 Moneyline) at DraftKings Sportsbook to close out the series in its second attempt, with the point total set for 208. Meanwhile, the Rockets are +180 on the Moneyline.
Rockets at Warriors Game 6 preview, prediction
Game 5 was over before it ever truly began, as Houston jumped out to a 30-point lead with seven minutes remaining in the second quarter. The Rockets scored 40 points in the first quarter alone, going 11-for-17 from the field, five-for-nine from deep, and 13-for-13 from the free throw line, tied for the eighth-most free-throw attempts by any team in the first quarter so far this season. Fred VanVleet, who was horrible in Games 1 through 3, scored 14 points in the frame on his way to 26 overall. It wasn’t even a great game for Houston’s two best scorers, Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green, who combined for just 26 points.
It was a fairly encouraging display for the Rockets overall. They merely forced one more turnover than the Warriors and scored the same amount of points off turnovers, so it was mostly their mediocre half-court offense that did the damage. Houston also got crushed on the offensive glass — Golden State had more offensive boards than defensive boards — and still blew the Warriors out, a rarity given the Rockets’ rebounding prowess overall. Şengün had just one offensive rebound for just the 11th time this season, which, to be fair, can be attributed to the fact that he only played 30 minutes and that Houston just didn’t miss much.
But now the series shifts back to Chase Center, where Golden State went 9-4 with the league’s seventh-best net rating after acquiring Jimmy Butler. The Warriors also have to feel good about winning Game 3 at home without Butler and Game 4 despite a 25-point performance from VanVleet and a 31-point, 10-rebound, five-assist, zero-turnover game from Şengün. The crowd in San Francisco is sure to be rocking tonight and Golden State won’t want to give the Minnesota Timberwolves too much of a rest advantage.
Rockets at Warriors pick, best bet
Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Stephen Curry has only averaged 15.0 points per game across Games 4 and 5 while shooting 10-for-25 from the field and five-for-17 from beyond the arc. He also hasn’t gotten many rebounds — just three in each game — and only combined for 10 dimes across the two games. Ime Udoka has tried a wider mix of defenders against him after he did most of his damage against Amen Thompson in the series’ first three games; VanVleet has now guarded him for more total time than Thompson this series and Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green have also had an opportunity to defend him. Of the four, Brooks has been the most effective.
A lot of it is shooting luck, though; Curry has only made two of his nine open threes across his last two games after making 254-of-625 (40.6%) of such shots in the regular season. He also hasn’t drawn many fouls — only three in each game — despite driving 6.5 times per game. During the regular season, the Rockets fouled at the 11th-highest rate and, though they’ve been more disciplined in the playoffs so far, the sample size is tiny. I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from Curry tonight, and for him to get to the charity stripe more than thrice.
For Houston to get 75 combined points from VanVleet, Thompson and Brooks probably won’t happen again, given that Thompson’s 25 points tie for the second-best scoring effort of his entire career, combined between the regular season and the postseason, and Brooks has scored fewer than 15 points in three of the series’ five games. VanVleet has hit three of his five tightly-contested threes over the last two games after making just 22.6% of them during the regular season. Brandin Podziemski has played okay defense on VanVleet for the most part, so his shot is likely to normalize. The Warriors have done a great job keeping Thompson from getting to the rim, too, neutralizing the most dangerous part of his game.
Overall, this Rockets team has been a positive surprise all season, and they’ve proven it so far in the playoffs by hanging tight with the remnants of the four-time NBA champions. It wouldn’t be incredibly surprising if they were to win tonight behind just a little bit more offensive production from Şengün and Green. But Golden State hasn’t lost two consecutive closeout game opportunities since those 2016 Finals, and it feels unlikely to break that streak tonight.
