We are an immediate satisfaction society. Heck, it’s why MLB instituted the pitch clock and attempted to make games end faster. However, even with the average game time waaaaay down, if you’re looking for the quickest action on the board for baseball, it’s a NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
On a small evening slate, here are my favorite spots for a NRFI bet on Thursday.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Casey Mize probably falls behind Spencer Torkelson when thinking about former first-overall picks who are finally breaking out for the Tigers in 2025, but let’s not undercut what he’s accomplished so far this season. Coming into tonight’s start, Mize owns a 2.12 ERA and a 2.44 xERA over 29.2 innings of work. It’s unlikely that a .238 opponent BABIP will sustain itself, or will a 94.5% strand rate, yet it’s hard to nitpick a man who has surrendered a single earned run or fewer in four of his five outings. Mize has the stuff and the pedigree to be good and I’d expect his success to continue in a matchup with the Angels, who sit dead-last in baseball with a 51 wRC+ across the past two weeks. Just imagine how bad they’ll be if Mike Trout (knee) is really hurt.
Los Angeles will counter Mize with its Opening Day starter: Yusei Kikuchi. As he’s been known to do, Kikuchi is struggling with an elevated 12.9% walk rate so far in 2025, but he’s also got three quality starts under his belt and he’s allowed one earned run or fewer in two of this last three trips to the mound. Kikuchi is a former All-Star and he was amazing for the Astros down the stretch of 2024. Every outing, he has the potential to be good.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (-140)
This game is taking place in San Francisco — not Colorado. Need I say more? It’s also not like the Rockies are the only team that come into this matchup struggling to score runs.
After a stunning start to the season, the Giants have cooled off, and offensive issues are a huge reason why. Over the past 14 days, San Francisco is slashing .216/.299/.316 with a .100 ISO and a 78 wRC+ that ranks 27th in baseball within that span of time. LaMonte Wade has fallen off a cliff. Matt Chapman is hitting below the Mendoza Line. Willy Adames, the team’s key free agent addition, sports a 71 wRC+ in his 137 plate appearances. Woof.
How much do I really need to explain when it comes to Colorado’s run-scoring prospects on Thursday evening? The Rockies can never hit on the road, yet they’re taking that trend to an extreme so far in 2025, possessing a .186 average and a 51 wRC+ within the split. Another important element to this bet if the recent form of Justin Verlander, who was awful out of the gate in San Francisco, but seems to be rounding into form. For the season as a whole, Verlander’s 3.90 xERA is respectable. His last two starts have been very promising, as the 42-year-old has conceded only seven hits and three earned runs across 12.0 innings.
