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How the public is betting Nuggets vs. Clippers Game 6 on Thursday 5/1/25

How the public is betting Nuggets vs. Clippers Game 6 on Thursday 5/1/25

Sports Betting Picks NBA DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

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By: Alex Hunter

The Nuggets and Clippers are going head-to-head for Game 6 of their first round series in Los Angeles on Thursday. Denver holds a 3-2 series lead and can advance to the Western Conference Semifinals with a win.

Let’s explore how the public is betting Game 6 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Splits

While its a completely even split in the amount bets on each team on the moneyline, 76% of the handle is on the Nuggets at +230. This means that most of the money is backing Denver to close out the Clippers on Thursday. As for the spread, the handle is essentially split down the middle, but 70% of the spread bets are backing the Nuggets +6.5. This is a product of recent bias, as Denver has won the last two games and they cruised to a 16-point victory in Game 5. That being said, Game 4 was a totally different story, as the Nuggets won with a buzzer beating dunk by Aaron Gordon. The Clippers easily could have won this game if this contest went to overtime and backing the Nuggets in Game 6 is risky, with this tilt being in Los Angeles. This season, the Clippers have been one of the best home teams in the association, with a 31-12 record. Los Angeles is also 21-9 ATS as a home favorite, while the Nuggets are 24-27-1 ATS following a win.

For the total, most bettors are on the over, with 77% of the bets and 65% of the handle backing over 211.5 points. This is a result of Game 5 producing 246 points. However, the three previous games of this series topped out at 207 points. Teams tend to up their defensive intensity in close out games and there is logic in fading the public and going with the under here, as the Clippers rank fourth in defensive rating and 52.9% of their games have gone under this season.

Here are the top-five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:

  1. Nikola Jokic 50+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
  2. Ivica Zubac 35+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (+100)
  3. Nikola Jokic Yes for a Triple-Double (+105)
  4. Nikola Jokic 25+ Points (-255)
  5. Michael Porter Jr. U 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)

Three of the top four most popular player props for Game 6 belong to Jokic. First off is the center for 50+ PRA at -120. Jokic has reached this number in four of his eight starts against the Clippers this season and he will likely see huge playing time in this closeout situation, making this bet totally viable. That being said, Jokic has historically been less productive on the road throughout his career and Los Angeles did just limit him to 35 PRA on his home floor in Game 5, so bet isn’t a lock by any means.

Up next is Jokic for a triple-double at +105. Despite his struggles in Game 5, Jokic was still able to tally his 37th triple-double of the season, which is his fourth in eight matchups with the Clippers. Jokic has triple-doubled in nearly half his starts this season and at a +105 price, this bet is a stronger wager than Jokic for 50+ PRA at -120.

Lastly for Jokic is the big man for 25+ points at a heavily favorited -255 price. Jokic is averaging 26.5 PPG in eight matchups with the Clippers this season and he has reached 25 points in five of those eight games. That being said, Jokic will be on the road for Game 6 and the Clippers just gave him problems in Game 5, when he only scored 13 points. If the odds were better, this bet would have more appeal, but at -255, Jokic for 25+ points isn’t the best wager.

Outside of the three Jokic props, the second-most bet player prop for Game 6 is Zubac for 35+ PRA at +100. The center should see huge minutes with the Clippers’ season on the line, but he is only averaging 31.1 PRA per game against the Nuggets this season in nine matchups and he has only reached 35 PRA in two of these nine games. Zubac could have an excellent outing and stay well under 35 PRA, and tailing the public here isn’t wise.

Finally, the fifth-most bet player prop is Porter Jr. for under 20.5 PRA at -120, which is very logical with the forward dealing with a shoulder injury. Porter Jr. is averaging 18.4 PRA per game in this series and he has fell short of 20.5 PRA in three of these five games. Given this prop’s popularity, there is a chance of this line moving to 19.5 before game time, so if interested in Porter Jr. for under 20.5 PRA, attacking this under quickly is smart.

Alex Hunter
Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player and sports handicapper, who has been a proud member of the DraftKings Network team since 2020. He is a data-driven analyst, who earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has been in the sports content business for nearly a decade, covering the NBA, NFL and PGA TOUR. Alex is a diehard Boston Celtics fan, who loves to be on the golf course when he isn’t grinding lineups or producing content. For all of Alex’s work or if you need any lineup advice, be sure to follow him @Hunta512 on X.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.