Five of the eight NBA first-round series have concluded. Of the three that haven’t, the Western Conference 4-5 matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the LA Clippers feels the most destined to go seven games. There hasn’t been much separating the teams so far — three of the five games have been decided by one possession or less, including a Game 4 buzzer-beater by Aaron Gordon ($7,600) that taught legions of NBA fans that the LED ring around the backboard doesn’t light up all at once.
LA is a 6.5-point favorite for Game 6 at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 211.5. The Clippers are -285 on the Moneyline, while the Nuggets are +230.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (DEN @ LAC).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Nikola Jokić ($20,400 CP) – There aren’t many players in the league who would be worth captaining for 40% of the salary cap, but when there’s a player as talented as Jokić in the lineup, it’s worth at least considering. His numbers are staggering — his bad games would constitute excellent ones for virtually any other player — and he’s as consistent as anyone. Whether or not his shot is falling — it almost always is — he’s also a constant threat for fantasy output thanks to his rebounding and playmaking prowess. He shot just four-for-13 from the field in Game 5 and still recorded 53.5 FPTS, better than the season average of any other player on either team.
There’s not much that LA can do to stop him except hope that he somehow misses. Ivica Zubac ($14,700 CP) is, all things considered, doing an excellent job defending him, but Jokić has still dropped 66 points, 30 assists and only nine turnovers while shooting 25-for-51 from the field in 41 minutes when guarded by his Balkan counterpart. The only Clippers defender who has had any success against Jokić is Kawhi Leonard ($15,300 CP), but Tyronn Lue has seemingly been hesitant to try that matchup thus far.
Kawhi Leonard ($15,300 CP) – Speaking of Leonard, the two-time Finals MVP has been incredible this series, and pictures of him in his red and white Toronto Raptors uniform have made the rounds on social media. Although he hasn’t been quite as dynamic as a scorer the last three games, scoring fewer than 25 points in each of them, he’s lived up to his collegiate nickname as Board Man — snagging 11, nine, and nine boards, respectively — and recording 42.25 or more FPTS in each of his past four games. He’s been cerebral about dishing to the open man when Denver brings a double-team and posted a playoff career-high 11 assists (55.25 FPTS) in Game 4.
Leonard has been excellent on both ends of the ball; Nuggets interim head coach David Adelman has predominantly targeted him by throwing Aaron Gordon ($11,400) on him, but Gordon hasn’t been very successful, as Leonard has scored 37 points and dished out 10 assists on 15-for-26 shooting in the 36 minutes that Gordon has guarded him. Plus, on the other end, he’s limited Gordon to just four points on two-for-14 shooting, and overall, opponents are shooting just 31.5% against him, the best mark among 129 players who have faced 20 or more field goal attempts these playoffs. He’s also recorded three or more combined steals/blocks in three of the five games so far this series.
FLEX Plays
Ivica Zubac ($9,800) – Given that Leonard can stuff all three of the major box score categories and is also a deep-shooting threat, he just edged out Zubac as LA’s captaincy option. But as fantastic as Leonard and James Harden ($11,800) have been at times this series, Zubac has been arguably the Clippers’ overall best player. Not only has he played capable defense on Jokić, he’s also gotten the best of him on the offensive side of the ball, too, scoring 21 points in the time that they’ve matched up. He’s scored 16 or more points in each game so far this series, grabbed double-digit rebounds thrice, and has recorded either a steal or a block in every game.
Denver’s defense isn’t good in general: if it were to win a title, its regular-season defensive rating ranking of 21st would be the worst among any champion since the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers, who finished 22nd. But the Nuggets’ biggest defensive weak link is also their biggest offensive strength, so challenging Jokić inside and tiring him out on that end of the floor would be a prescient strategy. If the Clippers keep feeding it to Zubac and force Jokić to work harder, he also might not be able to box out as hard on the boards; of the 50 players that have averaged at least 10 rebound chances per game these playoffs, Zubac’s boards have been contested at the fourth-highest rate.
Russell Westbrook ($6,400) – This series has been some sweet redemption for Westbrook, whose mediocre performances last season with LA soured his reputation within the franchise. The entire regular season was part of a redemption arc, and so far, he’s been making his former team pay in the playoffs. Although he’s battled some injuries — he suffered a foot injury prior to Game 3 that held him out for all but nine minutes of that contest and all of Game 4 — he’s recorded 23.0 or more FPTS in each game that he’s played his regular minutes. His 21-point (23.25-FPT) outburst in Game 5 was critical in Denver’s victory, and he showed off his versatile skillset, diving to the basket, pulling up for midrange jumpers, and draining three of his six three-point attempts.
Westbrook’s ability to keep the defense honest with his shot is a key to the game because it unlocks every other aspect of the Nuggets’ offense. The Clippers haven’t really contested many of his shots, staying home instead on targets inside and protecting against back-door cuts. But this series, he’s made 45.0% of his uncontested threes, an 11.2-percentage-point uptick from the regular season. His 39.1% three-point accuracy so far this series is his third-best deep efficiency of his career, and if he can keep his shot falling, it opens up the slashing and rebounding aspects of his game.
Fades
Norman Powell ($7,400) – Powell has slowed down somewhat after an extremely hot start to the season, when he was LA’s leading scorer for the first half of the campaign and looked like a prime contender to win the Most Improved Player award, for which his teammate Zubac ultimately finished as the runner-up. Since returning from a hamstring strain on March 16, he averaged only 15.1 points per game over the last 14 games of the regular season and shot just 43.8% from the field and 38.9% from deep. As Leonard got healthier and Zubac improved, Powell became merely a fourth option, although one of the most dangerous fourth options in the league.
The veteran sharpshooter has had a couple of good games this series, including a 20-point (29.25-FPT) outing in Game 3 and a 22-point (31.5-FPT) Game 4. But he’s no longer as valuable a fantasy asset as he was early in the season because not only is his usage rate lower — he hasn’t attempted more than 14 shots in any game this series — he doesn’t stuff the box score outside of his scoring. A one-dimensional scorer is a fine player and a valuable asset for a team, but as a fourth option in the playoffs, I’d steer away from him from a fantasy perspective.
THE OUTCOME
There are some series that just feel like they deserve to be decided in seven games. This is one of them.
It’d be unfair to the basketball world if Leonard and Jokić didn’t get the chance to battle one more time after tonight, for Jamal Murray ($9,600) to hit audacious shot after audacious shot, and for Zubac to toss up delicate hook shots. It’d be a sour ending to a tremendous first season at the $2 billion Intuit Dome if the Clippers lost on their home floor.
Anything can happen in the NBA playoffs, but playoff series tend to go to the team with the higher floor. As we saw in LA’s Game 3 blowout, its floor is higher than Denver’s.
