The Rockies came away with a whopping five wins in April. Today starts a new month and a clean slate. Can they secure their sixth win of the season and the first of the month? Let’s preview tonight’s matchup between the Rockies and Giants, with Kyle Freeland and Justin Verlander set to take the mound at 9:45 p.m. ET.
Rockies vs. Giants prediction, preview
On the surface, it looks as if Freeland is having a horrific season. His 5.93 ERA through 30⅓ innings is quite bad. However, an xERA of 3.51 and a 2.91 FIP tell a different story. Maybe Freeland has been downright unlucky thus far. Even so, tonight looks like a really poor matchup for the Rockies starter. The Giants hit sinkers well, especially against lefties. Since last season, tonight’s expected lineup has a .445 wOBA, .224 ISO, and 14.1% walk rate against lefty sinkers. That’s the pitch opposing hitters have found success against Freeland thus far, as they’re hitting .344 (xBA .357) and slugging .406 (xSLG .464). Unless Freeland avoids using his sinker as his main pitch tonight, the Giants should hit him well.
Verlander has found a groove after a rough start to the season. Over his last two starts against the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, he has tossed 12 innings, allowing just three runs on seven hits with 11 strikeouts and three walks. With his four-seam fastball, thrown 47% of the time, Verlander should keep the Rockies’ offense at bay. The Rockies have struggled against four-seam fastballs this season, with a combined .259 wOBA and .113 ISO. The only real threat in the lineup tonight is Jordan Beck, who has a .380 wOBA and .200 ISO against four-seam fastballs.
Rockies vs. Giants pick, best bet
Between the bad matchup for Freeland and Verlander looking to be in a great spot, the Giants to win feels like the play. However, I’m not looking to jump on a -265 moneyline. Instead, I’m looking toward the Giants team total of 4.5 and taking the over at +100. Even after Freeland departs, he’ll give way to a Rockies bullpen that owns a 4.48 FIP, which is amongst the highest in the league. They’re also inducing a lot of contact for outs, as they’re striking out less than a batter per inning with a 7.7 K/9.
