You can’t predict baseball, Suzyn. Well, I can. Hence this article. But the point still stands.
The Blue Jays entered Wednesday’s tilt with the Red Sox at their lowest point in 2025. They’d dropped eight of their last nine games and they were in possession of MLB’s worst home run differential. Boston immediately stepped out to a commanding 6-0 lead and it looked like things were unravelling north of the border. However, after a much-needed dose of power from Anthony Santander, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk, Toronto pulled out a miracle 7-6 victory in extra innings. Now, suddenly, the Jays can win this series against a division rival.
Will Toronto make it two in a row on Thursday night? Let’s break down the game and the betting angles on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
This is a matchup of two very inconsistent pitchers, yet each right-hander has proven to be quite good when throwing at their best. Let’s start with Jose Berrios. For the third straight season, Berrios is outperforming his ERA estimators. In fact, due to an inflated walk rate (10.4%) and an opponent HR/9 of 1.59, Berrios enters the action on Thursday with an ugly 5.05 FIP. That said, he tossed 5.1 scoreless innings against the Yankees in his last outing and, when these two squads met back on April 7, Berrios went seven solid frames, allowing only a single run. The highs and lows are extreme with the veteran.
Berrios has actually had a lot of success against the Red Sox in recent seasons, maintaining a 1.24 ERA across his last three starts versus the AL East foe. Still, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s dominated every individual matchup. Your milage with BvP numbers may vary, but Jarren Duran has absolutely owned Berrios throughout his career, posting a .500 average with three home runs in his 18 at-bats. Duran’s just been red-hot in general over the past couple of weeks, slashing .339/.397/.581 with a 174 wRC+ dating back to April 15. Tonight might be a good time to invest in the outfielder, whether that be in DFS or on the prop market.
On the other side, we find Tanner Houck. The RHP’s 7.58 ERA is atrocious, though it needs to be pointed out that a majority of the runs that Houck has surrendered in 2025 came in a single start: An 11 earned run travesty versus the Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field back on April 14. The 28-year-old’s two starts since that embarrassment have actually been decent, with Houck sporting a 27.7% strikeout rate and a 2.99 FIP. His splits against LHBs are awful, though, with lefty opponents managing a .636 slugging percentage and a .462 wOBA. Most of Toronto’s best hitters are right-handed: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer. Yet the Jays will be able to toss five or six left-handed hitters at Houck on Thursday, especially with Tyler Heineman likely giving Kirk a breather behind the dish.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
While Toronto’s lineup has been struggling to score runs prior to last night’s long ball barrage, I’m having a hard time seeing how this game stays low-scoring. One of these two starters is bound to blow-up and the Red Sox are simply crushing the ball as of late. Across the past two weeks, Boston owns the league’s highest ISO (.234) and its fourth-highest wRC+ (137). Add in a tired Blue Jays bullpen and things could get electric.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-118)
Berrios and Houck can have their good days, but for both to thrive on Thursday seems optimistic.
Strong Lean: Jarren Duran 3+ Total Bases (+180)
Duran owns Berrios head-to-head and he’s been unstoppable at the plate for the past two weeks.
