The Clippers are hosting the Nuggets for Game 6 of their first round series in Los Angeles on Thursday. Denver holds a 3-2 series lead and can advance with a win. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Clippers are a 6.5-point favorite for Game 6 and this contest carries a total of 211.5 points.
Below, I break down Game 6 between the Nuggets and the Clippers and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nuggets vs. Clippers preview, prediction
After winning at the buzzer in Game 4 with a put back dunk by Aaron Gordon, the Nuggets carried this momentum over to Game 5 and defeated the Clippers 131-115 to take the 3-2 series lead. Los Angeles did a great job in containing Nikola Jokic, with the three-time MVP scoring only 13 points on 4-of-13 shooting, but Jamal Murray heroically stepped up with Jokic struggling and went off for 43 points, seven assists, and five rebounds. Gordon also scored 23 points and Russell Westbrook (foot) was sensational in his return after missing Game 4, with the veteran posting 21 points in 25.2 minutes off the bench.
For the Clippers, Ivica Zubac led the way with 27 points. Kawhi Leonard nearly triple-doubled with 20 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kris Dunn also both thrived with 18 and 14 points, respectively. Unfortunately, Norman Powell was held to only 12 points and James Harden was a disappointment with 11 points, eight rebounds, and five assists on 3-of-9 shooting. In order to even this series in Game 6, the Clippers must get better performances from both of these players, especially Harden. The Nuggets have held the former MVP to 15 points or fewer in back-to-back games. and Harden only taking nine shots in Game 5 is simply unacceptable. Not only does Los Angeles need the guard to be more aggressive on the offensive end, but Harden needs to also improve his defense, as his lack of effort on that end was certainly a factor in Murray and Westbrook both going off. The Clippers are 8-2 in the last 10 games that Harden has scored 20+ points, and the guard needs to bounce back in Game 6 to keep Los Angeles’ season alive.
As a whole, the Clippers’ defense needs to come together as a group and be better on that side of the ball, which we know they are more than capable of, after Los Angeles finished the regular season fourth in defensive rating. While Murray’s outburst in Game 4 balanced things out with Jokic having a rare quiet night, the Clippers can’t allow Gordon and Westbrook to both score over 20 points. Evident from these showings, role players tend to always play better on their home floor. With this series shifting back to Los Angeles for Game 6, those type of outputs from Gordon and Westbrook are far less likely.
Nuggets vs. Clippers pick, best bet
While the Nuggets convincingly won Game 5, they were very lucky to steal Game 4 in Los Angeles with Gordon’s buzzer beating tip slam. Denver lost Game 3 in Los Angeles by a huge 34 points, and the Clippers should even this series up in Game 6 with this tilt back on their home floor. The Clippers have been terrific at home this season with a 31-12 record and since the All-Star break, they are leading the NBA in net rating when at home, while the Nuggets rank 17th in net rating when on the road.
Los Angeles is a 6.5-point favorite for Game 6. When favored at home this season, the Clippers are 25-5 overall and 21-9 ATS, with that latter record being the second-best in the league, only trailing the Thunder. Conversely, the Nuggets have been a mediocre 24-27-1 ATS when coming off a win. In this spot, backing the Clippers to cover is the right call.
