So far in this season series, Boston’s offensive onslaught and Toronto’s pitching turmoil have proved a nightmare match-up for the Jays. Chalk bettors everywhere—ahem—expect the Red Sox to cover the spread and send the Blue Jays to another tough loss. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Rays and the Royals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
The Red Sox, coming off a resounding, wall-clearing 10-2 victory in the series opener, have been red-hot offensively, scoring 23 runs in their last two games. With a 5.10 runs-per-game average, ranking sixth in the MLB, their lineup is at peak synergy. Alex Bregman has been the catalyst, batting .331 with six home runs and 23 RBIs, while Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran provide depth to an offense that has the power to explode at any moment. The Red Sox’s 9.1 strikeouts per game are a testament to their aggressive, high-velocity approach at the plate.
The addition of Lucas Giolito on the mound, despite his rusty return from injury, is the biggest question mark for tonight. But it isn’t enough to derail this team. In fact, Giolito has a solid track record against weak offenses like the Blue Jays, and the lineup he faces tonight is far from formidable. In his career, LG has posted a 5.40 ERA against Toronto. More importantly, he has held opposing offenses to a .239 batting average over his last five starts against teams with sub-.500 records. That’s a trend we like.
Toronto, by contrast, has been struggling to put runs on the board. They are ranked 27th in MLB, averaging just 3.34 runs per game, and their offense has been outpaced by almost every other team in their division. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., while dangerous, has been inconsistent after his extension, hitting just .271 with three home runs and 14 RBIs. Bo Bichette and George Springer have been the bright spots, but they can’t do it all alone.
Even with all that talent (classic Blue Jays introductory clause, no?), the Blue Jays’ offensive output has been underwhelming, and their pitching staff, already shaky, is stretched thin with a bullpen game slated for tonight. Their ERA sits at 4.28, and their recent trend of giving up big innings only exacerbates the pressure they’re under.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Adding to the Blue Jays’ woes, they are reeling from a three-game losing streak and have lost eight of their last nine contests. They simply haven’t been able to find consistency, and a bullpen game against a Red Sox team that’s found its rhythm at the plate seems like a recipe for disaster. The Blue Jays have given up 26 runs in the past three games, and their pitching staff has failed to keep the ball in the park, with opponents slugging .468 against them this season.
The trends back up the play on the Red Sox—Boston has won seven of their last eight games at Rogers Centre against teams with a losing record. Moreover, the Red Sox have been dominant on the road, covering the run line in 11 of their last 17 away games. Their offense is not only hitting for average but also for power, making them a dangerous threat against a vulnerable Toronto pitching staff. The Blue Jays have been unable to contain high-scoring teams, and the Red Sox’s balanced offensive attack should make it a long night for the Toronto bullpen.
Best bet: Red Sox (-110) at Blue Jays
Red Sox keep to the trends—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
