LeBron James props will be popular on Wednesday night, as the Lakers look to fight off elimination in a pivotal Game 5 at home. James has played in a whopping 28 elimination games in his career, and you’ll see plenty of information floating around supporting backing his props in these situations. LeBron has the highest scoring average in NBA history in such games, however, one thing is different this time around. The player with the second-highest points per game in elimination games is now his teammate — Luka Doncic.
That has me leaving LeBron’s point and combo props alone, but I will look to play him over his rebounding prop. Sure, in those 28 elimination games James does average 10.4 boards, but I’m more concerned with his role in this series. Jaxson Hayes, who for some reason starts at center for the Lakers, is averaging just 7.5 minutes per game. Hayes played a series-low four minutes in Game 4, and should continue to see essentially no role. The Lakers have instead been opting to play small ball with Dorian Finney-Smith on the floor, and using little to no bench — JJ Redick didn’t even make a substitution in the second half of Sunday’s crucial loss.
That leaves LeBron playing an untraditional center position for nearly all of his minutes. While he plays plenty on the perimeter on offense, James is needed in the paint on defense, which has resulted in cleaning the glass. After changing the rotation following the Game 1 loss, LeBron has played at least 40 minutes and grabbed at least 10 rebounds in each of the last three games.
Redick has already showed his hand in the sense that he has no problem playing his stars massive minutes, with the 40-year-old James logging 46 on Sunday. With plenty of time off between games, and the Lakers’ backs now against the wall, I don’t see that game plan changing. Look for LeBron to play nearly the entire game once again, almost predominantly as the center, in an attempt to create mismatches. By doing so, crashing the boards will be a requirement to keep his team in this game.
Best Bet: LeBron James OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-130) 1-unit
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