Wednesday’s MLB Prop Bets article will cover games beginning tonight at 6:10 p.m. ET. If you want to follow any of these betting picks, click the title of the bet to visit the betting page on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Chicago Cubs team total over 4.5 runs -130
The Cubs will take on the Pirates, specifically Carmen Mlodzinski, tonight. It’s been an extremely tough start to 2025 for Mlodzinski. He has a 6.95 ERA and an xERA of 4.92. He’s giving up a lot of hard contact (37%), and his barrel rate is currently the highest of his career (6.5%). Both sides of the plate have hit Mlodzinski hard, as lefties have a .423 wOBA and righties a .352 wOBA against him. This Cubs lineup has an almost even mix of hitters, with tonight’s lineup expected to showcase four lefties and five righties.
Mlodzinski has made five starts and has allowed at least three runs in four of them. Interestingly, the first time through the order, he’s been excellent. His 0.79 ERA the first time through the batting order is baffling, considering that the second and third times through, it jumps to 13.50. This is why I prefer the full-game total over the first five innings team total of 2.5 runs.
Once Mlodzinski is out, the Pirates’ bullpen will enter, and it likely won’t provide much relief. Over the past week, the Pirates’ bullpen has a 6.27 ERA and a 7.90 FIP, with a 4.3 K/9 and a 2.8 HR/9. With these factors in mind, I’m betting the Cubs to score at least five runs tonight.
DraftKings Network provides FREE betting splits. Check out how the public is betting on the games, totals, and run lines!
Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 H/R/RBI -110
Schwarber will be facing Nationals starter Jake Irvin tonight in Philly. Irvin focuses on two main pitches in his arsenal, featuring a curveball and four-seam fastball, which he throws a combined 69%. Schwarber hits both of these well, since last season, with a .338 wOBA and .342 ISO against the curveball and a .399 wOBA with a .298 ISO against the four-seam. Despite only hitting .243 on the season, Schwarber has gone over 1.5 H/R/RBI in more than half of his games, clearing this prop bet 52% of the time. I like this play a lot tonight, especially with odds close to even money. Irvin has nearly a two-run difference in his ERA (3.19) and his xERA (4.82). It’s only a matter of time before he’s hit hard in a start.
Byron Buxton over 1.5 H/R/RBI -105
Luis Ortiz is set to take the mound against the Twins tonight. He’s been about as bad as advertised, as indicated by his 5.96 ERA and a 5.08 xERA. Right-handed bats, in particular, have been hitting him hard. They’ve tagged him with a .363 wOBA, a 4.75 FIP, with two home runs. Buxton has been red hot at the plate, going 5-for-18 with a home run, five RBI, and five runs scored over his last four games.
Good luck with these MLB picks for tonight!
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