A physical, hard-hitting series between the Rockets and Warriors heads back to the Lone Star State for Game 5. Golden State has jumped out to a 3-1 lead in this best-of-seven set. Can Houston avoid elimination on Wednesday? Let’s look at which team the betting public is backing ahead of this crucial NBA playoffs showdown.
The Rockets enter tonight’s contest as four-point favorites over the Warriors, with the over/under set at 204 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
The moneyline looks nearly identical, with 60% of the handle and 59% of all bets supporting the Warriors. That’s not a shock following two straight victories for Golden State, one of which came without Jimmy Butler in Game 4. The Rockets have scored 199 combined points during that stretch. It’s a different story when looking at the spread, where Houston has garnered a massive 83% of the handle. Still, 63% of all bets on the spread backing the Warriors. That means most of tonight’s biggest wagers are hoping for a Rockets cover.
These teams have gone over Wednesday’s total, 204 points, only once this series. However, that’s primarily due to Houston’s scoring ineptitude; a return home should help the Rockets. 61% of the handle and 79% of all bets are expecting an increase in offensive production tonight.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the five player props in tonight’s matchup receiving the most bets:
- Steven Adams over 13.5 points + rebounds (-120)
- Amen Thompson 25+ points + rebounds + assists (+100)
- Draymond Green under 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-130)
- Stephen Curry under 5.5 assists (-160)
- Jalen Green 20+ points (+215)
Surprisingly, it’s Steven Adams generating the most prop bets in this matchup. The veteran isn’t much of a scorer, but rim protection and rebounding make him invaluable for the Rockets. In Game 4, the New Zealander logged 26 minutes, putting up five points and seven boards. During that contest, Adams’ +16 plus/minus led Houston; the next closest player, Alperen Sengun, had +4. A similar workload tonight against a small Warriors front court could lead to another productive outing.
If the Rockets are going to win Game 5, they’ll need more out of Amen Thompson. The forward enjoyed a breakout season, emerging as a difference maker on both ends of the court. Unfortunately for Houston, that hasn’t carried over into the playoffs. This series, Thompson has averaged just 11.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists. Still, Monday’s stat line (17 points, nine rebounds, two assists) is a positive sign going forward.
A pair of Warriors come in at third and fourth on tonight’s most-bet player props. Draymond Green, despite his on-court antics, remains one of basketball’s best defenders. While that’s enough to keep the veteran on the floor, his offensive game is quite limited. This series, he’s accounted for 6.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists. As for Steph Curry, it’s been another terrific postseason. Through four appearances, the guard has averaged 26.0 points on 51.4% shooting. However, the future Hall of Famer has notched less than six assists twice during that time.
To round out the list, we have bi-polar scorer Jalen Green. Within the first quarter, it’s easy to tell if the guard is ‘on’ or not. Thus far, Green has been primarily ice-cold. The 23-year-old has scored in double-digits only once this series, a 38-point masterpiece in Game 2. Given his extreme variance, the former second overall pick is a difficult player to bet on. Regardless, it’s fair to expect a much better showing from a player this talented. 20 points feels like a reasonable total tonight, even against a tenacious Warriors defense.
