This week, the PGA TOUR heads to Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. The event is played in the Dallas area at TPC Craig Ranch, a Tom Weiskopf-designed course that plays as a Par 71 and typically features easier scoring conditions.
I wrote a little about the course in this week’s PGA Cheat Sheet for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson on DKNation.
“The routing of the course isn’t overly complex, as there aren’t many doglegs in play, and the venue does appear to have plenty of space just off the fairways in many spots. Players don’t necessarily have to be the most accurate or biggest hitters off the tee to have success here, and that has seemingly helped weaker OTT players in the past. We don’t have a ton of data to work off, but 2022 saw players able to set themselves up for big weeks on approach, with solid work off the tee.
KH Lee gained +7.0 strokes more on approach than off the tee in 2021 and was again far more positive in 2022 on approach than off the tee. In 2023, Jason Day’s stats provided a similar story as he gained 10.0 strokes ball-striking (6.4 strokes on approach) but only 1.0 stroke around the green. Pendrith was a bit of an anomaly last season as he gained over 4.0 strokes around the greens (and less than a stroke on approach) but still gained big off the tee.
You don’t necessarily need to be long at Craig Ranch, but if you want to get aggressive on the bigger tiered greens, a decent week off the tee is still somewhat mandatory (again, if we’re going off the past winner’s stats).”
This is a birdie-makers course, and while distance can help, you need to be able to hit your mid-irons well and close to the hole here so you can give yourself a shot at getting hot with the putter. In many ways, this event eventually boils down to a putting contest, but the larger greens mean that those who are hitting it close have a much better shot at getting 20 under par or better for the week.
DraftKings Pick6 has full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals, specifically finishing positions (“Better Than” or “Worse Than”).
Ryo Hisatsune Better Than 37.5 Finishing Position
Hisatsune may not be well known, but the 22-year-old has already proven himself against tougher fields, winning in 2023 as a rookie on the European Tour at the very tough Le Golf National in France, where he bested a field of proven European pros for his first big pro win. He also finished third last season at another lower-scoring event in the Wyndham Championship and was a solid T13 at this venue last season (his first time playing the course).
He comes in this week having gained strokes on approach in five straight starts and ranks out 19th in overall proximity, and 20th from >200 yards (a popular approach range at Craig Ranch thanks to both the three shorter par 5s and the longer par 4s). Given his recent form and how well he’s done against tougher fields of late, the 37.5 finishing position looks slightly higher than I’d rate a player of his talent and form. I like using a “better than” on the Japanese pro to start lineups.
Jake Knapp Better Than 36.5 Finishing Position
Knapp is another great young player who comes in playing well and looks like a bargain for a “better than” play in DraftKings Pick6 at his current total. The American was in contention last week at Zurich and only fell back late in the round due to a few nervous shots by his partner down the stretch. Knapp has been solid all season, missing a couple of cuts here and there but also posting some great results alongside, like a T12 at the PLAYERS and a T6 at the Cognizant.
With this course having expansive fairways, Knapp should be able to gain with his driver off the tee and be aggressive into these big greens. He has been a tad boom or bust in the results department, but with just a top 35 needed to pay off, we’re not asking for much. The recent form is more than enough to hang our hat on, and the fact that he was competitive at this venue last season (T8) makes it a perfect time to be bullish on him for Pick6 play this week.
Taylor Pendrith Worse Than 25.5 Finishing Position
I’ve faded Pendrith a few times in the column this season, and it’s generally paid off. The Canadian had a few good results early on in 2025, but that’s killed his value for the rest of the year as he’s come into these events with Pick6 prices and totals that haven’t matched his results. He’s again sitting with a finishing position total that seems way bigger than it should be, based on players like Knapp/Hisatsune (mentioned above), who have been in far better form lately.
Pendrith is the defending champion of this event, but that also may not make things easy for him this week, just with the added media responsibilities. He also comes in off a terrible start at the RBC, where he finished T42 and lost 4.0 strokes around the greens. Overall, his around-the-green play and approach play aren’t in the same form as they were last year at this time, so expecting another big result seems like a losing proposition.
Jacob Bridgeman Worse Than 32.5 Finishing Position
If you’re looking for one more name to round out a four-way lineup, I’m also not super bullish about the prospects for Jacob Bridgeman this week, who has a smaller finishing position total than both Knapp and Hisatsune, two players I’m much higher on. Bridgeman has had two rough starts in a row now and lost 8.0 strokes on approach at the RBC, and that sort of regression may take multiple starts to sort out.
He also missed the cut at this venue last season and at the Weiskopf-designed TPC Scottsdale in February. If you’re looking to build a bigger card and balance out your Better Than leans with another Worse Than lean, I like being bearish on Bridgeman in this spot.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
