Given the type of game that the Golden State Warriors played in Game 4 — Jimmy Butler was healthy and excellent, and Brandin Podziemski scored 26 points — the Houston Rockets probably played their best game in the three-point loss, even though they won Game 2. Alperen Şengün had 31 points, 10 boards, and five assists, and Fred VanVleet finally got out of his nasty shooting slump.
In order to extend the series, the Şengün and VanVleet are going to need to show up again, and Houston’s also going to need more from Jalen Green, who had just eight points and has had an incredibly quiet postseason debut outside of a 38-point outburst in Game 2.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rockets are four-point favorites and the total is set for 204. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Green.
Best Jalen Green Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jalen Green U15.5 Points (-120)
Green almost certainly won’t be as bad in Game 5 as he was in Game 4, but the problem, efficiency aside, is that he simply wasn’t getting off enough shots. One of the only capable half-court shooters on Houston’s roster, he attempted eight shots on Monday and only 11 in Saturday’s Game 3, which is concerning given that Şengün, Steven Adams, and Amen Thompson all can’t shoot. But Gary Payton II has done a good job denying Green, holding him to just seven shots in 13 minutes of matchup time. And a now-healthy Butler has the offensive gravity to allow a defensive specialist like Payton to play more minutes.
Green also struggled a lot in Game 4 with turnovers, and there’s reason to believe that he might be sloppy with the ball in Game 5 too. After dealing for Butler, the Warriors forced the most turnovers of any team over the last 31 games of the regular season, and they rank fourth in that category in the postseason too. Plus, inexperienced teams tend to be sloppier with the ball in the postseason; just look at the Detroit Pistons, who have given up 1.9 more turnovers per game in the playoffs than they did in the regular season despite playing a New York Knicks team that was just average at forcing giveaways. If he gets himself in turnover trouble again, he won’t play enough minutes to score 16 points.
Jalen Green First Field Goal Made Type – 3 Points (+135)
One of the reasons that Golden State has so effectively minimized Green this series is that it has forced him into an unnatural position. While Green is a three-level scorer — he was one of just 43 players this season to make at least 50 restricted area shots, 50 floater-range shots, 50 midrange shots, and 50 three-pointers — his slashing ability and 99th-percentile athleticism has been largely neutralized by the Warriors so far. During the first four games of the series, he has attempted 54.2% of his shots from beyond the arc, compared to 46.0% during the regular season, and his average shot distance has increased by some nine inches.
So far, eight of his 13 first-quarter field goal attempts have been threes, and he’s made three of them (37.5%), making the first quarter his most frequent three-point shooting frame as well as his second-most efficient. Plus, in order to offer any modicum of spacing when the Rockets roll out their ultra-big look with Şengün and Adams on the floor together, VanVleet needs to be hitting his shots and Green can’t slash as much. He hasn’t played too many minutes with both centers, but four of his seven shot attempts and two of his three makes with the pair have come from beyond the arc.
