This first round series between the Warriors and Rockets continues with Game 5 on Wednesday in Houston. Golden State leads this series 3-1 and they will advance with a win in Game 5. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rockets are favored by 3.5 points and this game carries a total of 204 points.
Below, I break down Game 5 between the Warriors and the Rockets and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Warriors vs. Rockets preview, prediction
After missing Game 3 with a pelvis contusion, Jimmy Butler returned in Game 4 and willed the Warriors to a 109-106 victory, giving Golden State the 3-1 series lead over the Rockets. Butler appeared to be playing through some pain, but the notorious playoff performer led the Warriors with 27 points, six assists and five rebounds across 39.6 minutes. Stephen Curry had a relatively quiet performance by his standards with only 17 points on only 2-of-8 shooting from beyond the arc, but Brandin Podzemiski flourished with 26 points, five rebounds and five assists and Buddy Hield was terrific as a new member of Golden State’s starting five. After chipping in with 17 points off the bench in Game 3, Hield was moved into the starting lineup in Game 4 and posted 15 points, while Quentin Post moved back to the bench and thrived as the Warriors’ sixth man with 13 points.
In the Game 4 loss for the Rockets, Alperen Sengun stepped up and went off for 31 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. Fred VanVleet also rose to the occasion and scored 25 points, while Amen Thompson had his best outing of the series with 17 points and nine rebounds. Unfortunately, Jalen Green’s struggles against the Warriors continued, with the guard only scoring eight points in 24.5 minutes. Green notably was benched for the final five minutes of this competitive tilt and he only logged 10 minutes in the second half.
Green has now scored single digit points in three of the four games of this series against the Warriors, and single digit points in five of his nine matchups with Golden State this season, which is obviously alarming, as Green led the Rockets with 21 PPG in the regular season. This elite Warriors defense that is leading the league in rating since the All-Star break clearly knows how to contain Green and Houston desperately needs to the guard to turn things around in Game 5 if they want to keep their season alive.
While Sengun’s heroics in Game 4 were impressive, the Rockets’ offense becomes one dimensional when they base everything around feeding the big man. Houston needs both Sengun and Green to have productive scoring nights to beat this Warriors team, and they also need their secondary options in VanVleet and Thompson to both have solid outings. Defensively, Houston needs to slow down the Warriors’ role players, which is possible in Game 5 with the Rockets having home-court advantage for this pivotal tilt.
Warriors vs. Rockets pick, best bet
With Butler in the lineup for the Warriors, it’s hard to pick against Golden State, regardless of Game 5 being on the road. The Warriors are 26-8 with Butler active this season and the Rockets’ only victory in this series came in Game 2, when Butler exited after only logging seven minutes. Also, the Warriors’ ability to shut down Green is a huge problem for Houston and it’s difficult to envision the guard all the sudden figuring this matchup out in Game 5, with the stakes massive and most importantly, Butler being available for Golden State. With the veteran on the floor this season, the Warriors have boasted an outstanding 107.8 defensive rating.
Ending this series tonight and possibly getting Butler some extra rest ahead of the second round is crucial for the Warriors, and they should close out the Rockets in Game 5.
