When the Los Angeles Lakers traded for Luka Dončić on February 1, the expectation was that the trade lowered the Lakers’ ceiling in the short-term and raised it for the next decade, a modest expectation that grew stronger when Los Angeles rescinded its deal for Charlotte Hornets starting center Mark Williams. Then Dončić and LeBron James clicked immediately, and it seemed that the Lakers had a real shot of winning a championship in 2024-25.
Their first-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves has done nothing to inspire confidence. Dončić has expectedly struggled sometimes on the defensive end, James looked like a 40-year-old for the first two games, and the role players — Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, and Dorian Finney-Smith — haven’t produced much. Jaxson Hayes has been downright unplayable at center.
Still, Los Angeles is a 5.5-point favorite (-230 Moneyline) at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 209. Meanwhile, Minnesota is +190 on the Moneyline.
Timberwolves at Lakers Game 5 preview, prediction
If there’s any man who can lead the Lakers back from the brink, it’s James, who most famously did it when his Cleveland Cavaliers erased a 3-1 deficit in the 2016 NBA Finals against the 73-9 Golden State Warriors. His primary sidekick in this case, Dončić, is a significantly better player than Kyrie Irving was in 2016. But the 3-1 comeback has only happened 13 times in NBA history, accounting for less than 5% of all series that have ever reached this stage, and James has lost the other four times he went down 3-1.
Ultimately, this series is over; whether they win in five, six, or seven games, the Timberwolves will ultimately prevail. Top to bottom, this Los Angeles unit is less talented than the one that produced miracles in the 2016 Finals and James is nine years older. Still, some bettors are believers; the Lakers have just +360 odds to ultimately complete the comeback, while the Houston Rockets (also down 3-1) have just +550 odds of taking down Golden State.
Game 4 was full of glaring red flags. Just five players — Dončić, James, Hachimura, Reaves, and Finney-Smith — accounted for some 87% of Los Angeles’ minutes in Game 4, as Hayes, Jarred Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent, and Jordan Goodwin combined for just two points. James was clearly tired by the time the fourth quarter rolled around and probably can’t play 46 minutes again tonight. Reaves had five fouls, including an egregious failed block attempt on Jaden McDaniels’ game-tying dunk with 39 seconds to play, and he missed a few three-pointers he normally hits. Some losses are bad and others are downright dispiriting; as a Lakers fan, I fear that Sunday’s defeat was the latter.
Timberwolves at Lakers pick, best bet
Regardless of the ultimate result, one thing is guaranteed: Dončić is going to go down swinging. Amidst the biggest upheaval of his career, the Slovenian appears to be motivated on both ends of the ball, and despite his defensive shortcomings — he hasn’t exactly stopped McDaniels from producing the best playoff series of his career — he’s put in enough effort without compromising his offense. Speaking of his offense, we’re so used to his brilliance that 30.8 points, seven boards and five assists on 47-37-94 shooting splits has been largely undiscussed. But I think of his Game 7 performance against the LA Clippers in 2021 (46 points, seven rebounds, and 14 assists) as well his dagger to destroy the Phoenix Suns the following season (35 points and 10 boards in just 30 minutes).
The problem is everyone else. While James is by far the greatest 40-year-old in league history and is still capable of MVP-level play in spurts, he’s not the game-wrecking impact player that he was just a few seasons ago. It’s a small sample size — 29 total minutes — but Los Angeles has been 11.5 points per 100 possessions better with The King off the floor, a worrying trend that started during the regular season and has extended into the postseason. Compared to his teammates, James has done a solid job defensively against both McDaniels and Anthony Edwards, but he hasn’t done a great job containing Julius Randle, his primary assignment.
Randle’s excellent shooting — he’s hit 45.5% of his triples this series, including seven of his nine wide-open threes — has been a critical factor, but McDaniels has been Minnesota’s most important player. So far this series, the Timberwolves have blitzed the Lakers by 16.4 points per 100 possessions in the 148 minutes McDaniels has been on the floor and been killed by 18.3 points per 100 possessions in the 44 minutes he has sat. Some of his shooting might be unsustainable — Los Angeles has gotten a defender within four feet of him on 57.9% of his shot attempts, a 12.7 percentage point uptick form the regular season — but bigger issues remain.
The shot quality difference between these two teams isn’t close. McDaniels has taken his average shot just 9.4 feet from the basket. 25 of his 63 shot attempts have come in the restricted area, where he shot 70.7% during the regular season, and he’s taken just one above-the-break three. Anthony Edwards, too, has attempted his average shot 2.7 feet closer to the basket than he did in the regular season, and 41.2% of Naz Reid’s shots have been wide-open threes, an increase from 32.5% in the regular season. The Lakers have also scored the fewest points in the paint and given up the third-most, thanks to four-time DPOY Rudy Gobert. Between Gobert and Reid, Minnesota has basically been able to stop Reaves from getting to the rim, daring the 37.0% three-point shooter to beat it from deep. Hachimura took 45.5% of his shots within 10 feet during the regular season, which has dipped to 34.2% in the playoffs.
I grew up in Los Angeles and have a Kobe Bryant jersey “retired” in my apartment, so I hope I’m wrong. But there was never any logical reason to consider that this Lakers team was genuinely better than the Timberwolves. JJ Redick has been out-coached by Chris Finch, and Los Angeles has been out-played in every facet of the game. The Lakers’ future is still bright — they can thank Nico Harrison for that one — but that future won’t start tonight.
