Talk about nail-biting and talk about controversial. The ball might’ve still been on Aaron Gordon’s fingertips as it passed through the rim when time expired on Saturday’s Game 4. Even on slow-motion replay, it was too close to call, and who knows if it would have been called a basket if it hadn’t been ruled that way initially. Gordon’s game-winner was just the second buzzer-beating, game-winning dunk in NBA playoff history.
Now the Denver Nuggets have home-court advantage back, as the series is tied 2-2 with Game 5 set to take place tonight high in the Rocky Mountains. Of the eight first-round playoff series, this is the only one that is tied; all the others will either play deciding Game 5’s or have already ended in a sweep. It’s what might’ve been expected from a pair of teams who finished with identical 50-32 records during the regular season and split the regular-season series.
The Clippers are 1.5-point favorites (-130 Moneyline) at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 208.5. Meanwhile, Denver is +110 on the Moneyline.
Clippers at Nuggets Game 5 preview, prediction
This series has literally been decided by a matter of inches and milliseconds so far. Game 1 might not have gone to overtime had LA center Ivica Zubac not missed three of his four free throws or Kawhi Leonard simply turned the ball over six times instead of seven. Game 2 was settled, ultimately, by three-time MVP Nikola Jokić having seven giveaways, including one on the Nuggets’ penultimate possession. Game 3 would’ve been a Clippers blowout regardless, and Game 4 would’ve gone to overtime if the ball had simply left Gordon’s hands a few milliseconds later.
These two have among the better potential storylines of any team remaining in the playoffs. Jokić could lead his team to its second title in three seasons, solidifying himself as a top 10 player in NBA history. Either James Harden or Russell Westbrook might finally get a ring to serve as the cherry on top of his Hall of Fame career. Kawhi Leonard, battered by injuries but somehow resuscitating his prime at age 33, seeks to become the second player ever to win Finals MVP with three different franchises. But of course, before either of these teams can start dreaming of a title, they need to take down each other.
It’s anyone’s guess how it’ll play out. Leonard, Harden, and Zubac are probably three of the four best players in the series. But Jokić is the not only the best player in the series, he’s the best player on the planet, and because of that, Denver is never out of it. He’s had a fairly pedestrian series by his standards, but 28.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 10.8 assists, and 2.3 steals per game on 54-48-69 shooting splits would be unbelievable by literally anyone else’s. His 36-point, 21-board, eight-assist effort in Game 4, in which he scored 16 points in the third quarter alone, was downright heroic, even if he only scored five points in the fourth as LA nearly came back from 20 points down.
Nuggets at Clippers pick, best bet
Defense alone might not necessarily win championships, although the average champion over the last 25 years has had the league’s sixth-best defensive rating. In that case, the Clippers should be favored to ultimately win the series, given that they finished third in the regular season in defensive rating and the Nuggets just 21st. But not only does LA have a significantly better defensive squad, it rosters has the best individual defender so far this postseason; among the 96 players who have defended at least 30 shots this postseason, Leonard has allowed opponents to hit just 23.7% of their shots, a mark 9.1 percentage points better than any other player.
Through the first four games of the series, Tyronn Lue has primarily put Leonard on Michael Porter Jr. It’s worked; in the 22 minutes that the two have matched up, Porter has scored just nine points on three-for-seven shooting, and for the series overall, he’s averaged just 10.5 points and 7.3 boards per game and shot only 43.8% from two-point range. It’s worth wondering whether Lue will explore more with Leonard on Jokić, though; in the six minutes that he’s been guarded by Leonard, the 30-year-old Serbian has shot just two-for-eight from the field and missed all three of his three-point shots. The issue is that putting Leonard on Jokić would leave Zubac on Gordon, and Gordon is too athletic for that to be sustainable.
Denver might get Westbrook back tonight after he missed Game 4 with a foot injury that forced him to leave Game 3 after just nine minutes of playing time. Porter, too, is probable with a shoulder sprain, but he struggled mightily in Game 3 while dealing with the injury before bouncing back with a 17-point performance in Game 4. The Nuggets will probably want Westbrook on the floor, especially after his Game 1 crunch-time heroics, but the team was 8.3 points per 100 possessions better with him off the court during the regular season. The 2016-17 MVP’s absence also unlocked some offense from Christian Braun, who finally dropped 17 points in Game 4 and might lose some shots to the notoriously inefficient Westbrook.
Jamal Murray’s shot will also be an X-factor. The Canadian is one of the most famous playoff risers in NBA history, and he posted fairly solid performances in each of the first three games before a five-for-17 stinker in Game 4. Kris Dunn has been relatively effective on him all postseason, holding him to just four-for-12 accuracy from the field, and his defense proved critical even on a night when his shot wasn’t falling. Dunn forced Murray into some slightly less efficient looks than usual; 62.7% of his regular-season shots came with the nearest defender at least four feet away, a figure that’s dropped to 59.2% so far this series, including eight-of-17 (47%) in Game 4. I’m expecting a bounce-back in Game 5 for Murray, but if the Clippers close out strong on his shots, it’s not a guarantee that his jumper will start falling again.
Also, the deeper into the series it gets, the more fatigue will be a factor, and since LA is be able to get some production from its bench in a way that Denver can’t, Leonard and Harden have combined to play 23 fewer minutes than Jokić and Murray. Nicolas Batum won’t shoot one-for-four on wide-open, catch-and-shoot threes like he did in Game 4, and Bogdan Bogdanović is due to finally have a passable offensive performance, while I can’t say that about any Nuggets bench guys besides Westbrook. The Clippers’ depth and defense will be just enough to squeak out a win.
