Following a thrilling weekend of NBA playoff basketball, the action will resume on Monday night with a matchup between the Miami Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers. After finishing the regular season with the best record in the Eastern Conference, Cleveland has taken a commanding 3-0 series lead, putting Miami’s backs against the wall in the series.
Erik Spoelstra has been swept in the playoffs just once as a head coach, in 2021 against the Milwaukee Bucks. Tyler Herro has been vocal about this Heat team not being added to this list, but they will need an improved effort if the results are to change. Through the opening three games of the series, Cleveland has outscored Miami 366-299.
Heading into this fateful Game 4 matchup, the Cavaliers are 8.5-point favorites and -375 on the Moneyline. The Heat hold +295 odds of getting the victory on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 210.5 for the matchup.
With a potentially fateful Game 4 in store as the Heat sit on the brink of elimination, here are my favorite prop bets for the matchup.
Donovan Mitchell Over 31.5 Points & Assists (-120)
It has been a somewhat underwhelming opening round for Donovan Mitchell. Through the opening three games, he is averaging 24.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game and has shot 12-for-27 (44.4%) on three-point attempts. Mitchell has shown his ability as a playoff riser in years past, but this has not been necessary across the opening three victories. This series has been won by Cleveland’s depth, with there being a notable gap in talent on the overall rosters of these teams.
However, if there is one thing clear about the Heat, it is that they will not just roll over. With the home crowd behind them and their season on the line, expect a more spirited effort from Miami and for Donovan Mitchell to make more of an offensive impact. The six-time All-Star was limited to 13 points and one assist on 4-for-14 shooting in the previous game. However, he has scored 29+ points and at least three assists in each of his seven previous playoff games. This includes as many as 54 combined points and assists, and tallying 36 and 34 combined points and assists in the opening two games.
In addition, Darius Garland remains questionable for the matchup after missing the previous game with his toe injury. With the 3-0 series lead in mind, it would not be shocking for the Cavaliers to be cautious and keep him out again tonight. This would put more responsibility on Mitchell’s plate on the offensive end. Miami has given the Cavaliers’ star respect in how they defended him and forced the ball out of his hand for stretches. Expect him to lead the charge with his scoring, but I prefer the over 31.5 combined points and assists line in case the Heat force Mitchell to beat them as a passer. He has tallied as many as 14 assists in a game this season and is equipped to do this as well if this is the case.
Davion Mitchell Over 22.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-105)
If there is one bright spot to be taken out of the series from the Heat’s perspective, it should be the level of play from Davion Mitchell. After spending time with both the Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors, Mitchell looks to be a seamless fit for the “Heat Culture” that has been established down in Miami. Across the 30 games he spent with the Heat in the regular season, Mitchell averaged 10.3 points, 5.3 assists, and 2.7 rebounds per game in 31.6 minutes per night.
He has taken his game up a level in the postseason. Mitchell has started two of the first three games, playing 35.7 minutes per night, and averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 assists, and 3.0 rebounds. He has recorded over 22.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in all three games in the series, and I expect this to carry into tonight.
Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo headline Miami’s offensive attack, but they are fairly limited in their number of offensive creators. Davion Mitchell has taken on this challenge and attempted 11+ shots in two of the three games. His defensive impact earns him the opportunity on the floor, and he has revealed some offensive layers that were not evident in his other NBA opportunities. The 26-year-old is not afraid of the moment and can be counted on to step up tonight. It feels the odds have not been corrected based on his expanded opportunity, and look for Mitchell to cruise past this number once again.
Kel’el Ware Over 0.5 Made Three-Pointers (+145)
Another late-season positive storyline surrounding this Heat team has been the development of Kel’el Ware. The rookie big man saw his level of opportunity expand as the season progressed, with him proving capable of sharing the floor with Bam Adebayo. One factor that has helped make this possible is Ware’s ability to space the floor and shoot from the perimeter.
Across the regular season, Ware shot 31.5% from beyond the three-point arc on 1.7 perimeter shots per game. But his role expanded as the year progressed, shooting 2.0 perimeter shots per game since January. Ware also has shot the ball much better at home, connecting on 36.5% of his three-point shots in Miami compared to 25.0% on the road.
This effort has carried into the postseason, with him shooting 3-for-7 from beyond the three-point arc thus far in the series. Ware shot 2-for-3 from the perimeter in the previous game and has attempted three long-range shots in back-to-back games. He will not be regarded as a main offensive threat, but Ware is proving capable in his opportunities, and Miami needs more sources of offense. Expect him to continue being an option for this Heat team, and getting +145 odds is solid value for him to make a three-pointer for the third straight game.
