We are an immediate satisfaction society. Heck, it’s why MLB instituted the pitch clock and attempted to make games end faster. However, even with the average game time waaaaay down, if you’re looking for the quickest action on the board for baseball, it’s a NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
Here are my favorite spots for a NRFI bet on Monday night.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians (-120)
Things have not gone well for Bailey Ober so far in 2025, yet I’m still leaning towards a NRFI bet in Cleveland tonight, just given how underwhelming these lineups have been in general. The Guardians have been the dictionary definition of league-average so far this season, ranking 15th in MLB in both ISO (.148) and wRC+ (101). When breaking down specifically the top of the lineup, Steven Kwan has been amazing and has been getting on base at .397 clip, but Jose Ramirez has just a 118 wRC+ and there aren’t too many bats who I believe can take advantage of Ober’s home run struggles. In his last two outing versus Cleveland in 2024, Ober combined to give up only two earned runs across 13.0 innings with 21 strikeouts.
On the other side, the Twins’ offense has been far worse than their divisional counterpart. Minnesota enters play on Monday hitting a paltry .226 with a .134 ISO and a .299 wOBA that ranks 22nd in baseball. The scariest part for Twins fans and the organization has to be the complete deterioration of Carlos Correa, who is slashing .211/.262/.316 with a 66 wRC+ across 103 plate appearances in 2025. Gavin Williams has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season. I have a good feeling that he’ll be able to get out of the first inning unscathed.
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros (-130)
This is probably the best pitching matchup on tonight’s slate. The Tigers will send Jack Flaherty to the mound, while the Astros will counter with Ronel Blanco. The former is off to a great start in his second go-around with Detroit, as Flaherty owns a 2.63 ERA and a 3.09 FIP over his first five outings of 2025. The key for the RHP has been his ability to suppress opponent contact. In fact, Flaherty possesses a career-best 30.6% strikeout rate, as he’s stuck out 34 opponents in his 27.1 innings of work. It’s also not like Houston has hit all that well in April. Yordan Alvarez heated up a little this weekend, but on the whole, the Astros come into Monday with a .114 ISO — the third-lowest mark in all of baseball.
As for Blanco, the right-hander is on the heels of his best performance of the young season, allowing just two hits over 6.2 inning against the Blue Jays on April 22. Blanco’s 3.63 xERA is much nicer to look at than his 5.01 ERA and this is the same pitcher who maintained a 2.80 ERA over 167.1 innings in 2024. That’s more than enough track record for me to trust in Blanco, especially give his opponent. While the Tigers began 2025 absolutely crushing the ball, things have come back down to Earth the past couple of weeks. Over the last 14 days, Detroit sports a .109 ISO. This lineup simply lacks pop.
