Monday once again brings us a bit of a desolate slate of MLB games, with back-of-the-rotation starters hoping to pleasantly surprise their ball clubs with quality starts. After evaluating the market of games—Astros vs. Tigers, Orioles vs. Yankees, Rangers vs. A’s—it turned out that the best values I found were in the Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals game! Having said that, below are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
St. Louis Cardinals (+100) at Cincinnati Reds
The Reds hang such volatile numbers on the scoreboard these days that it feels folly to play run-line against this lineup. I’m not going to be comfortable tailing someone to cover a +1.5 number against Cincinnati until the 20-run games are, like, six weeks in the mirror. We’re not there yet.
So the only way to bet against the Reds is in wagering they’ll lose outright. This doesn’t feel like a spot where they should—they’re coming off four straight victories and returning home. What awaits them feels like a four-game feast of the St. Louis Cardinals, who are 3-7 in their last 10 games, and feel just about that degree of inconsistent across all phases for all of 2025 so far.
I mention it for a later best bet, but I think the matchup favors St. Louis just a bit more. Their team batting average is best in the National League at .265, and Reds’ starter Nick Martinez’s xBAA is .281. The Cardinals can hit, and Martinez gives plenty up.
Cards’ starter Pallante is actually worse, with a xBAA of .291. Having said that, he ranks in the 98th percentile of qualified starting pitchers with a 67.4% ground ball rate. The Cardinals’ defense has been a marked improvement this year, and they’re currently third in the MLB in fielding percentage at .989.
Cards have a slight enough advantage for me to find value in the plus-money for the outright win, here.
Willson Contreras to hit a home run (+350) at Cincinnati Reds
Contreras’s season thus far has utterly stunk. I bought into the whole shift-to-first-base/-DH move, which would subsequently make it so Willy would be reduced to his truest, most terrifying form: true slugger. Not so thus far. And there’s a too-massive-to-be-real drop-off in all his hard-hit advanced metrics between 2024-2025 that’s simply too wide a margin to be real. Most importantly: Contreras’ bat speed has not slowed down one bit: his 76.0 bat speed is actually just the slightest improvement on his 2024 75.9 bat speed figure. So the ability to get the bat to the ball is there; he’s just not squaring.
Having said that, Contreras has seen Nick Martinez at the plate twice in his career. Both times, Contreras bested Martinez with hits, one of which was a home run. Over his last seven games, Contreras has started to positively regress a bit: .375 avg and 1.024 OPS. The Reds have been hot, but Contreras has been too. Let’s bet him to take Martinez deep a second time.
Nick Martinez o5.5 hits allowed vs. Cincinnati Reds
One of these two pitchers is going to get chased early. Both are back-of-the-rotation-caliber assets, and Martinez might be the one more prone to contact between the two of them. The Cardinals, as a team, boast that .265 average we spoke about earlier. That’s intimidating for most opposing pitchers, but even more so for Martinez, whose xBAA is .281.
I just have a feeling one of these pitchers is going to get chased from the game early. NL Central rivalry game on Monday evening, beginning of a four-game series. It’d be easy to imagine softer lineup cards against Martinez and Pallante, but should the Cardinals roll out their starters. They’re 3-7 over their last ten games, and the Reds have won their last four.
It’d be wise of these red bird bats to plan on jumping Martinez early. So we’ll say he gives up 6+ hits and gets chased before the sixth.
