Up next on the PGA TOUR schedule is THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. For the fifth year in a row, this event will be played at TPC Craig Ranch (par 71, 7,569 yards, bentgrass greens) in McKinney, Texas. Taylor Pendrith (-23) is the defending champion of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and for this week, there will be 156 golfers competing with a standard top-65 and ties cut following the first two rounds.
TPC Craig Ranch is an easy track that is home to wide fairways, thin rough, large greens, 83 bunkers and four water hazards. While on the longer side, we have seen both short and long hitters win at TPC Craig Ranch and OTT stats don’t need to be a point of emphasis this week. This par 71 is a prime example of a second-shot course where you must be in elite form with your irons to contend. Of the four victors at TPC Craig Ranch, three finished the event top-three in SG APP. Notably, 28.1% of approach shots at this course have come from 200+ yards out, so targeting golfers who are efficient from this distance is wise. TPC Craig Ranch is a traditional par 71 with 11 par fours and only three par fives. As expected, being efficient on the par fours is most crucial at this course, as three of the four winners at TPC Craig Ranch have finished the tournament top-five in par four efficiency.
Below, I have featured four of my favorite DraftKings bargain plays for THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson, which are all priced under $7.5K.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
Sami Valimaki ($7,300) – Disregard that Valimaki missed the cut at the team-based Zurich Classic last week with Ben Silverman as his partner and roster Valimaki with confidence this week. As an individual, Valimaki has been on a roll, making seven straight cuts with his last three finishes all being top-18 results, including a T-4 at the Houston Open and a T-12 at the Valero Texas Open, both of which took place in the Lone Star State.
Valimaki ranks seventh in strokes gained per round when we analyze this field’s histories in Texas, and he has gained strokes on approach and with his putter at four consecutive tournaments. Plus, Valimaki ranks eighth in SG APP and 26th in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 200+ yards out this season, making him a perfect match for TPC Craig Ranch. Valimaki missed the cut in his first attempt at this par 71 last year, but the Finnish professional is a far more polished player now who brings top-10 upside this week.
Matt Kuchar ($7,300) – Kuchar is a great bargain at this low salary. The veteran has made 3-of-4 cuts at TPC Craig Ranch with two of these finishes coming inside the top-17. Kuchar has also been consistent this season, missing only one cut in seven starts and with three finishes of T-32 or better.
Kuchar ranks 33rd in par four performance this season and he is far too cheap for his chances of making the cut this week.
Davis Riley ($7,200) – Riley checks all the boxes this week and is a no-brainer at only $7,200. The 28-year-old finished T-32 at the Zurich Classic last week with Nick Hardy as his teammate, and before this, Riley had made six cuts in a row as an individual. During this cut streak, the Alabama product gained strokes on approach at all but one event and he carded three top-25 finishes, including a T-21 at the Masters and a T-7 at the Valspar Championship.
At TPC Craig Ranch, Riley has thrived at the scoreable par 71, finishing T-9, MC and T-30 at the last three CJ Cup Byron Nelsons. Additionally, he ranks eighth in strokes gained per round when we compare this field’s histories at courses in Texas. Riley sits a whopping 154 spots higher in the world golf rankings than when he finished T-30 at TPC Craig Ranch last year and he is a real threat to contend in this weak field.
Zach Johnson ($7,000) – Johnson finished T-20 in his first attempt at TPC Craig Ranch last season and the two-time major champion has the potential for a similar finish this week. Before missing the cut at the Zurich Classic last week with Ryan Palmer as his partner, Johnson had finished T-18 at the Valero Texas Open and T-8 at the Masters in his last two solo starts. Johnson nearly gained strokes in every major category at both these events and his T-8 at the Masters is his best finish at a major since 2021.
Johnson is clearly confident with his game right now and the low scoring conditions at TPC Craig Ranch suit the veteran. Johnson won at another easy TPC course in TPC Deere Run in 2012 and he ranks 12th in strokes gained per round when we compare this field’s histories at TPC venues.
