It’s game time at Great American Ball Park, and the tension is mounting. With Andre Pallante on the hill, Nolan Arenado heating up, and the Cardinals looking to bounce back from a home loss, tonight’s matchup promises fireworks. The Reds may be riding a four-game win streak, but three of those were the Colorado Rockies. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Reds and the Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Reds vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
The Reds may be riding high after a sweep against the Rockies, but let’s pump the brakes. This was a team that dropped series to the Brewers and Mariners, and they’ve been inconsistent overall. Elly De La Cruz has been a dynamo, hitting .341 over his last 10 games, but the offense can still sputter against competent pitching. Cincinnati’s lineup ranks 17th in runs per game and 26th in batting average, sitting just above .250 on the season. Even with power from Austin Hays (.755 slugging), De La Cruz, and Noelvi Marte (.364, .404 OBP), the Reds’ offense falters in night games, hitting just .200 as a team. A quiet offense and a bullpen that’s shaky at best leave plenty of room for doubt.
On the mound, the Reds will trot out Nick Martinez (0-3, 5.40 ERA). Martinez has allowed 16 earned runs over 26.2 innings and has shown major vulnerability with a 1.39 WHIP. His inability to put hitters away—evident in his 2.5 strikeouts per walk ratio—makes him an easy target for a Cardinals lineup that ranks 7th in runs scored and 1st in batting average. This year, Brendan Donovan has stepped up with a .359 average, leading the team, while Lars Nootbaar (.409 OBP) adds depth to a lineup with multiple offensive threats. If Martinez continues his trend of being hittable, these guys will make him pay.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have Andre Pallante (2-1, 4.05 ERA) on the bump. While Pallante has faced his own challenges, including allowing eight earned runs in his last two starts, he has historically dominated Cincinnati, holding their batters to a .188 average across 64 at-bats. His ability to limit damage with a K/BB ratio of 2.18 and his control over the Reds’ aggressive hitters—especially De La Cruz—puts St. Louis in a strong position. The Reds have struggled to solve Pallante’s mix of velocity and control, and with their offense still proving inconsistent, the Cardinals will be able to capitalize on Martinez’s struggles.
Cardinals vs. Reds pick, best bet
St. Louis’ betting trends also point toward an upset. The Cardinals have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs following a loss, and in these spots, they’ve covered the run line eight times in their last nine against NL Central teams. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as favorites after a road win. Andre Pallante’s success against the Reds, coupled with the Cardinals’ ability to take advantage of weak pitching, makes them a solid play tonight.
Key players like Nolan Arenado, who’s homered in two straight games at Great American Ball Park, and Masyn Winn, whose speed on the basepaths makes him an impact player, give St. Louis a strong edge offensively. Victor Scott II has also been solid, contributing both in the field and at the plate.
It’s a tough spot for the Reds tonight. Their inconsistency on offense, combined with Nick Martinez’s struggles, gives the Cardinals the edge. St. Louis Moneyline at +100 is the smart play here.
Best bet: Cardinals ML (+100) at Reds
Cardinals bust the Reds’ winning streak; tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
